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good afternoon and welcome to the

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good afternoon and welcome to the
 

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good afternoon and welcome to the
administrators seminar series we're here

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administrators seminar series we're here
 

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administrators seminar series we're here
once again to discuss the nation's

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once again to discuss the nation's
 

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once again to discuss the nation's
future in space this is the fourth in a

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future in space this is the fourth in a
 

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future in space this is the fourth in a
series of dialogues that looks at

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series of dialogues that looks at
 

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series of dialogues that looks at
different aspects of what might comprise

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different aspects of what might comprise
 

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different aspects of what might comprise
a driving goal for the next era a goal

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a driving goal for the next era a goal
 

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a driving goal for the next era a goal
that's fundamentally character and

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that's fundamentally character and
 

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that's fundamentally character and
that's important to the public that

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that's important to the public that
 

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that's important to the public that
supports the space program Martin Luther

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supports the space program Martin Luther
 

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supports the space program Martin Luther
King said as marvelous as the stars is

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King said as marvelous as the stars is
 

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King said as marvelous as the stars is
the mind of the person who studies them

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the mind of the person who studies them
 

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the mind of the person who studies them
and so when we began this series in

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and so when we began this series in
 

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and so when we began this series in
January we started with life what is

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January we started with life what is
 

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January we started with life what is
life mean how would we recognize it

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life mean how would we recognize it
 

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life mean how would we recognize it
elsewhere either in our own solar system

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elsewhere either in our own solar system
 

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elsewhere either in our own solar system
or on another earth orbiting a distant

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or on another earth orbiting a distant
 

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or on another earth orbiting a distant
Sun the mind of the person who studies

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Sun the mind of the person who studies
 

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Sun the mind of the person who studies
the Stars created cosmology by virtue of

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the Stars created cosmology by virtue of
 

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the Stars created cosmology by virtue of
this activity we put ourselves squarely

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this activity we put ourselves squarely
 

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this activity we put ourselves squarely
at the center of the universe looking

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at the center of the universe looking
 

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at the center of the universe looking
outwards this theme life and it's self

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outwards this theme life and it's self
 

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outwards this theme life and it's self
conscious exploration of itself in the

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conscious exploration of itself in the
 

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conscious exploration of itself in the
cosmos form the basis of our first three

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cosmos form the basis of our first three
 

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cosmos form the basis of our first three
seminars today's seminar is called new

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seminars today's seminar is called new
 

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seminars today's seminar is called new
frontiers and climate research the

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frontiers and climate research the
 

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frontiers and climate research the
refrain from lynn margulis the speaker

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refrain from lynn margulis the speaker
 

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refrain from lynn margulis the speaker
at our first seminar runs through

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at our first seminar runs through
 

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at our first seminar runs through
today's to life is a planetary

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today's to life is a planetary
 

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today's to life is a planetary
phenomenon that she said the images we

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phenomenon that she said the images we
 

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phenomenon that she said the images we
have gotten back from our shuttle

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have gotten back from our shuttle
 

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have gotten back from our shuttle
missions show clearly the climate and

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missions show clearly the climate and
 

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missions show clearly the climate and
its change are a planetary phenomenon

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its change are a planetary phenomenon
 

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its change are a planetary phenomenon
life thrived in abundance without self

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life thrived in abundance without self
 

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life thrived in abundance without self
awareness for perhaps three and a half

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awareness for perhaps three and a half
 

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awareness for perhaps three and a half
billion years yet nor much briefer

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billion years yet nor much briefer
 

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billion years yet nor much briefer
history on the planet we have

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history on the planet we have
 

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history on the planet we have
transformed it what is the impact of the

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transformed it what is the impact of the
 

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transformed it what is the impact of the
climate on climate of our own actions

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climate on climate of our own actions
 

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climate on climate of our own actions
and what is the interplay of our doings

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and what is the interplay of our doings
 

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and what is the interplay of our doings
and that of nature's how do all the

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and that of nature's how do all the
 

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and that of nature's how do all the
different aspects of climate research

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different aspects of climate research
 

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different aspects of climate research
fit into one overall planetary picture

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fit into one overall planetary picture
 

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fit into one overall planetary picture
understanding this has motivated a u.s.

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understanding this has motivated a u.s.
 

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understanding this has motivated a u.s.
Global Change Program and NASA's part of

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Global Change Program and NASA's part of
 

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Global Change Program and NASA's part of
it which is called mission to Planet

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it which is called mission to Planet
 

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it which is called mission to Planet
Earth today we're going to hear how

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Earth today we're going to hear how
 

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Earth today we're going to hear how
science and space contribu

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science and space contribu
 

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science and space contribu
to this mission and our distinguished

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to this mission and our distinguished
 

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to this mission and our distinguished
speakers dr. Ellen Mosley Thompson and

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speakers dr. Ellen Mosley Thompson and
 

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speakers dr. Ellen Mosley Thompson and
dr. Michael McElroy will address the

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dr. Michael McElroy will address the
 

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dr. Michael McElroy will address the
question of what should be our long-term

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question of what should be our long-term
 

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question of what should be our long-term
vision for monitoring the planet and

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vision for monitoring the planet and
 

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vision for monitoring the planet and
communicating this information widely

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communicating this information widely
 

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communicating this information widely
I'd first like to bring up the NASA

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I'd first like to bring up the NASA
 

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I'd first like to bring up the NASA
Administrator Mr Dan Goldin whose vision

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Administrator Mr Dan Goldin whose vision
 

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Administrator Mr Dan Goldin whose vision
shaped these seminars and whose

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shaped these seminars and whose
 

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shaped these seminars and whose
leadership propels us to consider a

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leadership propels us to consider a
 

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leadership propels us to consider a
future beyond the 96 budget mr. golden I

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was recently in a set of discussions

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was recently in a set of discussions
 

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was recently in a set of discussions
with some of the people from Robert

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with some of the people from Robert
 

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with some of the people from Robert
Mondavi wineries and they have a problem

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Mondavi wineries and they have a problem
 

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Mondavi wineries and they have a problem
it's called philosophy that comes around

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it's called philosophy that comes around
 

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it's called philosophy that comes around
every hundred years or so and it wiped

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every hundred years or so and it wiped
 

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every hundred years or so and it wiped
out the grapes in France and it's now in

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out the grapes in France and it's now in
 

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out the grapes in France and it's now in
the process of beginning to destroy some

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the process of beginning to destroy some
 

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the process of beginning to destroy some
of the grape vines in Northern

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of the grape vines in Northern
 

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of the grape vines in Northern
California it's very interesting about

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California it's very interesting about
 

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California it's very interesting about
falaka when you're on the ground you

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falaka when you're on the ground you
 

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falaka when you're on the ground you
don't see it you don't know that it's

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don't see it you don't know that it's
 

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don't see it you don't know that it's
beginning to destroy the plants down in

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beginning to destroy the plants down in
 

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beginning to destroy the plants down in
its root system but from the height of

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its root system but from the height of
 

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its root system but from the height of
space you could look down with a

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space you could look down with a
 

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space you could look down with a
hyperspectral device and you could

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hyperspectral device and you could
 

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hyperspectral device and you could
actually see the stress on the grape

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actually see the stress on the grape
 

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actually see the stress on the grape
vines from the philosopher so what this

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vines from the philosopher so what this
 

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vines from the philosopher so what this
tells us is when you're close you can't

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tells us is when you're close you can't
 

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tells us is when you're close you can't
necessarily they say you can't see the

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necessarily they say you can't see the
 

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necessarily they say you can't see the
forest from the trees space gives us an

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forest from the trees space gives us an
 

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forest from the trees space gives us an
ability to holistically look down on our

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ability to holistically look down on our
 

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ability to holistically look down on our
own planet and get a sense not just

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own planet and get a sense not just
 

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own planet and get a sense not just
about what's happening in this spot oh

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about what's happening in this spot oh
 

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about what's happening in this spot oh
that's pot we get a broad holistic view

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that's pot we get a broad holistic view
 

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that's pot we get a broad holistic view
of our own planet and it touches

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of our own planet and it touches
 

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of our own planet and it touches
everybody's life and as we have 5.5

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everybody's life and as we have 5.5
 

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everybody's life and as we have 5.5
billion strong on this planet preparing

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billion strong on this planet preparing
 

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billion strong on this planet preparing
for as many as 10 billion perhaps in

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for as many as 10 billion perhaps in
 

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for as many as 10 billion perhaps in
30-40 years from now it's very very

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30-40 years from now it's very very
 

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30-40 years from now it's very very
important that we understand the forces

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important that we understand the forces
 

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important that we understand the forces
of nature

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of nature
 

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of nature
and we understand the forces of the

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and we understand the forces of the
 

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and we understand the forces of the
human species and right now most of the

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human species and right now most of the
 

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human species and right now most of the
debate that takes place with regards to

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debate that takes place with regards to
 

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debate that takes place with regards to
our environment is based on passion and

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our environment is based on passion and
 

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our environment is based on passion and
emotion and who could print the most who

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emotion and who could print the most who
 

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emotion and who could print the most who
could get the best press bite what we'd

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could get the best press bite what we'd
 

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could get the best press bite what we'd
like to do is have rational decisions

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like to do is have rational decisions
 

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like to do is have rational decisions
about our environment about our own

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about our environment about our own
 

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about our environment about our own
planet and how we manage those resources

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planet and how we manage those resources
 

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planet and how we manage those resources
and that could only come with a holistic

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and that could only come with a holistic
 

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and that could only come with a holistic
view so we are set out on a course and

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view so we are set out on a course and
 

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view so we are set out on a course and
we only see maybe five or ten years out

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we only see maybe five or ten years out
 

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we only see maybe five or ten years out
on this course but let me take you out

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on this course but let me take you out
 

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on this course but let me take you out
20 or 30 years to what I think we could

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20 or 30 years to what I think we could
 

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20 or 30 years to what I think we could
have I think we could have virtual

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have I think we could have virtual
 

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have I think we could have virtual
coverage of our own planet that's active

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coverage of our own planet that's active
 

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coverage of our own planet that's active
and passive coverage multispectral with

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and passive coverage multispectral with
 

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and passive coverage multispectral with
a matta a small spacecraft hooked up

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a matta a small spacecraft hooked up
 

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a matta a small spacecraft hooked up
either through photons or through RF

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either through photons or through RF
 

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either through photons or through RF
waves so they're coherently coupled so

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waves so they're coherently coupled so
 

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waves so they're coherently coupled so
we could get pixel registration that

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we could get pixel registration that
 

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we could get pixel registration that
will allow us to understand the stresses

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will allow us to understand the stresses
 

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will allow us to understand the stresses
on our life forms the stresses on our

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on our life forms the stresses on our
 

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on our life forms the stresses on our
planet so we could understand how to

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planet so we could understand how to
 

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planet so we could understand how to
make rational decisions at the same time

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make rational decisions at the same time
 

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make rational decisions at the same time
when we have this wonderful data we

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when we have this wonderful data we
 

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when we have this wonderful data we
could close the biological circle people

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could close the biological circle people
 

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could close the biological circle people
are very very isolated from nature today

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are very very isolated from nature today
 

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are very very isolated from nature today
and I've said this before you know in

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and I've said this before you know in
 

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and I've said this before you know in
big cities like Washington and New York

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big cities like Washington and New York
 

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big cities like Washington and New York
you know it's fall not by when the

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you know it's fall not by when the
 

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you know it's fall not by when the
leaves fall off the trees but when the

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leaves fall off the trees but when the
 

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leaves fall off the trees but when the
football season starts you know it's

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football season starts you know it's
 

247
00:06:39,270 --> 00:06:40,820
football season starts you know it's
spring when the baseball season's

248
00:06:40,820 --> 00:06:40,830
spring when the baseball season's
 

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00:06:40,830 --> 00:06:44,899
spring when the baseball season's
thoughts as technological as we are we

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00:06:44,899 --> 00:06:44,909
thoughts as technological as we are we
 

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thoughts as technological as we are we
are ecologically isolated from our own

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00:06:48,140 --> 00:06:48,150
are ecologically isolated from our own
 

253
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are ecologically isolated from our own
environment so by having this ability

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environment so by having this ability
 

255
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environment so by having this ability
which technology could give us it should

256
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which technology could give us it should
 

257
00:06:54,719 --> 00:06:57,830
which technology could give us it should
be able to close the loop but towards

258
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be able to close the loop but towards
 

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00:06:57,840 --> 00:07:00,740
be able to close the loop but towards
what purpose are we going in the right

260
00:07:00,740 --> 00:07:00,750
what purpose are we going in the right
 

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00:07:00,750 --> 00:07:03,379
what purpose are we going in the right
direction and this is what I think we'd

262
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direction and this is what I think we'd
 

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direction and this is what I think we'd
like to explore today the why and the

264
00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:06,409
like to explore today the why and the
 

265
00:07:06,409 --> 00:07:09,560
like to explore today the why and the
what not the how because this is what we

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what not the how because this is what we
 

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what not the how because this is what we
concern ourselves with NASA too much how

268
00:07:12,050 --> 00:07:12,060
concern ourselves with NASA too much how
 

269
00:07:12,060 --> 00:07:13,100
concern ourselves with NASA too much how
are we going to do it how many

270
00:07:13,100 --> 00:07:13,110
are we going to do it how many
 

271
00:07:13,110 --> 00:07:14,320
are we going to do it how many
spacecraft what

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00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:14,330
spacecraft what
 

273
00:07:14,330 --> 00:07:17,320
spacecraft what
look at so we'd like to explore the what

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00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:17,330
look at so we'd like to explore the what
 

275
00:07:17,330 --> 00:07:19,839
look at so we'd like to explore the what
and the why and then understanding the

276
00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:19,849
and the why and then understanding the
 

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00:07:19,849 --> 00:07:21,490
and the why and then understanding the
what and why the problem we could get to

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00:07:21,490 --> 00:07:21,500
what and why the problem we could get to
 

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00:07:21,500 --> 00:07:23,170
what and why the problem we could get to
the hell so I look forward to the

280
00:07:23,170 --> 00:07:23,180
the hell so I look forward to the
 

281
00:07:23,180 --> 00:07:35,679
the hell so I look forward to the
discussions today thank you okay our

282
00:07:35,679 --> 00:07:35,689
discussions today thank you okay our
 

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00:07:35,689 --> 00:07:37,959
discussions today thank you okay our
first speaker to talk about the what and

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00:07:37,959 --> 00:07:37,969
first speaker to talk about the what and
 

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00:07:37,969 --> 00:07:40,149
first speaker to talk about the what and
the why is dr. Ellen stone Mosley

286
00:07:40,149 --> 00:07:40,159
the why is dr. Ellen stone Mosley
 

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00:07:40,159 --> 00:07:43,360
the why is dr. Ellen stone Mosley
Thompson she received her higher degrees

288
00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:43,370
Thompson she received her higher degrees
 

289
00:07:43,370 --> 00:07:45,429
Thompson she received her higher degrees
in climate ology from Ohio State

290
00:07:45,429 --> 00:07:45,439
in climate ology from Ohio State
 

291
00:07:45,439 --> 00:07:47,680
in climate ology from Ohio State
University and is now an associate

292
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:47,690
University and is now an associate
 

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00:07:47,690 --> 00:07:50,619
University and is now an associate
professor there she's also a research

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00:07:50,619 --> 00:07:50,629
professor there she's also a research
 

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00:07:50,629 --> 00:07:52,659
professor there she's also a research
scientist for the Byrd Polar Research

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scientist for the Byrd Polar Research
 

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00:07:52,669 --> 00:07:56,529
scientist for the Byrd Polar Research
Center's one of her specialties is paleo

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00:07:56,529 --> 00:07:56,539
Center's one of her specialties is paleo
 

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00:07:56,539 --> 00:07:59,469
Center's one of her specialties is paleo
climactic reconstructions based on

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00:07:59,469 --> 00:07:59,479
climactic reconstructions based on
 

301
00:07:59,479 --> 00:08:01,570
climactic reconstructions based on
evidence preserved in ice cores from

302
00:08:01,570 --> 00:08:01,580
evidence preserved in ice cores from
 

303
00:08:01,580 --> 00:08:05,010
evidence preserved in ice cores from
Antarctica Greenland China and Peru

304
00:08:05,010 --> 00:08:05,020
Antarctica Greenland China and Peru
 

305
00:08:05,020 --> 00:08:07,089
Antarctica Greenland China and Peru
she's been involved in global

306
00:08:07,089 --> 00:08:07,099
she's been involved in global
 

307
00:08:07,099 --> 00:08:09,159
she's been involved in global
reconstruction of the Little Ice Age

308
00:08:09,159 --> 00:08:09,169
reconstruction of the Little Ice Age
 

309
00:08:09,169 --> 00:08:12,189
reconstruction of the Little Ice Age
event the role of volcanism in the last

310
00:08:12,189 --> 00:08:12,199
event the role of volcanism in the last
 

311
00:08:12,199 --> 00:08:15,790
event the role of volcanism in the last
millennium of climate variability the

312
00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:15,800
millennium of climate variability the
 

313
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,070
millennium of climate variability the
reconstruction of abrupt changes in the

314
00:08:18,070 --> 00:08:18,080
reconstruction of abrupt changes in the
 

315
00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,860
reconstruction of abrupt changes in the
environmental system and the impact of

316
00:08:20,860 --> 00:08:20,870
environmental system and the impact of
 

317
00:08:20,870 --> 00:08:24,339
environmental system and the impact of
these changes on human activity she has

318
00:08:24,339 --> 00:08:24,349
these changes on human activity she has
 

319
00:08:24,349 --> 00:08:25,930
these changes on human activity she has
served as a member of several national

320
00:08:25,930 --> 00:08:25,940
served as a member of several national
 

321
00:08:25,940 --> 00:08:28,540
served as a member of several national
academy and NRC committees and global

322
00:08:28,540 --> 00:08:28,550
academy and NRC committees and global
 

323
00:08:28,550 --> 00:08:30,309
academy and NRC committees and global
change in the environment and is

324
00:08:30,309 --> 00:08:30,319
change in the environment and is
 

325
00:08:30,319 --> 00:08:32,380
change in the environment and is
currently president of the atmospheric

326
00:08:32,380 --> 00:08:32,390
currently president of the atmospheric
 

327
00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:34,959
currently president of the atmospheric
sciences section of the american

328
00:08:34,959 --> 00:08:34,969
sciences section of the american
 

329
00:08:34,969 --> 00:08:47,699
sciences section of the american
geophysical union dr. Mosely Thompson

330
00:08:47,699 --> 00:08:47,709

 

331
00:08:47,709 --> 00:08:52,540

thank you dr. Cordova and thank you for

332
00:08:52,540 --> 00:08:52,550
thank you dr. Cordova and thank you for
 

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00:08:52,550 --> 00:08:54,519
thank you dr. Cordova and thank you for
coming and it's quite a pleasure to be

334
00:08:54,519 --> 00:08:54,529
coming and it's quite a pleasure to be
 

335
00:08:54,529 --> 00:08:58,600
coming and it's quite a pleasure to be
here I'll start with my first slide the

336
00:08:58,600 --> 00:08:58,610
here I'll start with my first slide the
 

337
00:08:58,610 --> 00:09:01,569
here I'll start with my first slide the
title of my talk is I score records as

338
00:09:01,569 --> 00:09:01,579
title of my talk is I score records as
 

339
00:09:01,579 --> 00:09:04,930
title of my talk is I score records as
windows on the past and keys to our

340
00:09:04,930 --> 00:09:04,940
windows on the past and keys to our
 

341
00:09:04,940 --> 00:09:09,400
windows on the past and keys to our
future I like to start my talks with

342
00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:09,410
future I like to start my talks with
 

343
00:09:09,410 --> 00:09:13,569
future I like to start my talks with
this picture this is the margin of the

344
00:09:13,569 --> 00:09:13,579
this picture this is the margin of the
 

345
00:09:13,579 --> 00:09:16,569
this picture this is the margin of the
Cal kaya ice cap which sits in the Andes

346
00:09:16,569 --> 00:09:16,579
Cal kaya ice cap which sits in the Andes
 

347
00:09:16,579 --> 00:09:19,509
Cal kaya ice cap which sits in the Andes
of Peru at 14 degrees south at over

348
00:09:19,509 --> 00:09:19,519
of Peru at 14 degrees south at over
 

349
00:09:19,519 --> 00:09:22,690
of Peru at 14 degrees south at over
6,000 or at about fifty seven hundred

350
00:09:22,690 --> 00:09:22,700
6,000 or at about fifty seven hundred
 

351
00:09:22,700 --> 00:09:25,720
6,000 or at about fifty seven hundred
meters what you see here are the annual

352
00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:25,730
meters what you see here are the annual
 

353
00:09:25,730 --> 00:09:29,550
meters what you see here are the annual
layers each of those is the snow that

354
00:09:29,550 --> 00:09:29,560
layers each of those is the snow that
 

355
00:09:29,560 --> 00:09:34,389
layers each of those is the snow that
accumulated in a given year I'll come

356
00:09:34,389 --> 00:09:34,399
accumulated in a given year I'll come
 

357
00:09:34,399 --> 00:09:36,970
accumulated in a given year I'll come
full circle at the end of the talk I

358
00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:36,980
full circle at the end of the talk I
 

359
00:09:36,980 --> 00:09:41,380
full circle at the end of the talk I
will show you how this ice cap no longer

360
00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:41,390
will show you how this ice cap no longer
 

361
00:09:41,390 --> 00:09:43,350
will show you how this ice cap no longer
looks this way and it's no longer

362
00:09:43,350 --> 00:09:43,360
looks this way and it's no longer
 

363
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:50,889
looks this way and it's no longer
preserving this unique archive if we

364
00:09:50,889 --> 00:09:50,899
preserving this unique archive if we
 

365
00:09:50,899 --> 00:09:53,740
preserving this unique archive if we
drill through ice caps and ice sheets we

366
00:09:53,740 --> 00:09:53,750
drill through ice caps and ice sheets we
 

367
00:09:53,750 --> 00:09:56,920
drill through ice caps and ice sheets we
get an ice core much like this drilled

368
00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:56,930
get an ice core much like this drilled
 

369
00:09:56,930 --> 00:10:00,430
get an ice core much like this drilled
here using a thermal drill I showed this

370
00:10:00,430 --> 00:10:00,440
here using a thermal drill I showed this
 

371
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,259
here using a thermal drill I showed this
some people might not know what a nice

372
00:10:02,259 --> 00:10:02,269
some people might not know what a nice
 

373
00:10:02,269 --> 00:10:06,670
some people might not know what a nice
core looks like this slide outlines the

374
00:10:06,670 --> 00:10:06,680
core looks like this slide outlines the
 

375
00:10:06,680 --> 00:10:09,100
core looks like this slide outlines the
type of environmental data that we get

376
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:09,110
type of environmental data that we get
 

377
00:10:09,110 --> 00:10:12,310
type of environmental data that we get
from ice cores the beauty of an ice core

378
00:10:12,310 --> 00:10:12,320
from ice cores the beauty of an ice core
 

379
00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:14,889
from ice cores the beauty of an ice core
is it produces a multi-faceted record

380
00:10:14,889 --> 00:10:14,899
is it produces a multi-faceted record
 

381
00:10:14,899 --> 00:10:18,910
is it produces a multi-faceted record
it's a cylinder if we take a cut through

382
00:10:18,910 --> 00:10:18,920
it's a cylinder if we take a cut through
 

383
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,730
it's a cylinder if we take a cut through
there we get a cross-section like this

384
00:10:21,730 --> 00:10:21,740
there we get a cross-section like this
 

385
00:10:21,740 --> 00:10:24,130
there we get a cross-section like this
and then we can partition the samples

386
00:10:24,130 --> 00:10:24,140
and then we can partition the samples
 

387
00:10:24,140 --> 00:10:26,920
and then we can partition the samples
and make a variety of measurements for

388
00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:26,930
and make a variety of measurements for
 

389
00:10:26,930 --> 00:10:28,569
and make a variety of measurements for
example one of the most common

390
00:10:28,569 --> 00:10:28,579
example one of the most common
 

391
00:10:28,579 --> 00:10:30,490
example one of the most common
measurements is that of the oxygen

392
00:10:30,490 --> 00:10:30,500
measurements is that of the oxygen
 

393
00:10:30,500 --> 00:10:33,639
measurements is that of the oxygen
isotopic ratio which we use as a proxy

394
00:10:33,639 --> 00:10:33,649
isotopic ratio which we use as a proxy
 

395
00:10:33,649 --> 00:10:37,030
isotopic ratio which we use as a proxy
for temperature we can also measure

396
00:10:37,030 --> 00:10:37,040
for temperature we can also measure
 

397
00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:41,230
for temperature we can also measure
atmospheric chemistry the dustiness of

398
00:10:41,230 --> 00:10:41,240
atmospheric chemistry the dustiness of
 

399
00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:45,939
atmospheric chemistry the dustiness of
the atmosphere vegetation changes not in

400
00:10:45,939 --> 00:10:45,949
the atmosphere vegetation changes not in
 

401
00:10:45,949 --> 00:10:48,340
the atmosphere vegetation changes not in
the polar regions but outside the polar

402
00:10:48,340 --> 00:10:48,350
the polar regions but outside the polar
 

403
00:10:48,350 --> 00:10:51,220
the polar regions but outside the polar
regions bulk at the Earth's volcanic

404
00:10:51,220 --> 00:10:51,230
regions bulk at the Earth's volcanic
 

405
00:10:51,230 --> 00:10:54,900
regions bulk at the Earth's volcanic
history and as dr. McElroy will show you

406
00:10:54,900 --> 00:10:54,910
history and as dr. McElroy will show you
 

407
00:10:54,910 --> 00:10:58,569
history and as dr. McElroy will show you
anthropogenic emissions carbon dioxide

408
00:10:58,569 --> 00:10:58,579
anthropogenic emissions carbon dioxide
 

409
00:10:58,579 --> 00:11:02,829
anthropogenic emissions carbon dioxide
methane and nitrous oxide in ice course

410
00:11:02,829 --> 00:11:02,839
methane and nitrous oxide in ice course
 

411
00:11:02,839 --> 00:11:06,369
methane and nitrous oxide in ice course
where we can discern the annual layer we

412
00:11:06,369 --> 00:11:06,379
where we can discern the annual layer we
 

413
00:11:06,379 --> 00:11:08,819
where we can discern the annual layer we
can say something about how much snow

414
00:11:08,819 --> 00:11:08,829
can say something about how much snow
 

415
00:11:08,829 --> 00:11:11,859
can say something about how much snow
accumulated in a given year in other

416
00:11:11,859 --> 00:11:11,869
accumulated in a given year in other
 

417
00:11:11,869 --> 00:11:14,379
accumulated in a given year in other
words we can go back and reconstruct the

418
00:11:14,379 --> 00:11:14,389
words we can go back and reconstruct the
 

419
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:19,169
words we can go back and reconstruct the
precipitation history in that region

420
00:11:19,169 --> 00:11:19,179

 

421
00:11:19,179 --> 00:11:22,720

this slide is busy but it shows all of

422
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:22,730
this slide is busy but it shows all of
 

423
00:11:22,730 --> 00:11:25,269
this slide is busy but it shows all of
the places where we have either had a

424
00:11:25,269 --> 00:11:25,279
the places where we have either had a
 

425
00:11:25,279 --> 00:11:28,629
the places where we have either had a
nice scoring project or we anticipate

426
00:11:28,629 --> 00:11:28,639
nice scoring project or we anticipate
 

427
00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:31,809
nice scoring project or we anticipate
having one in the next slide I'm just

428
00:11:31,809 --> 00:11:31,819
having one in the next slide I'm just
 

429
00:11:31,819 --> 00:11:34,239
having one in the next slide I'm just
going to show you the upper 40 meters of

430
00:11:34,239 --> 00:11:34,249
going to show you the upper 40 meters of
 

431
00:11:34,249 --> 00:11:37,239
going to show you the upper 40 meters of
a core from the dire plateau located

432
00:11:37,239 --> 00:11:37,249
a core from the dire plateau located
 

433
00:11:37,249 --> 00:11:40,109
a core from the dire plateau located
right here on the Antarctic Peninsula

434
00:11:40,109 --> 00:11:40,119
right here on the Antarctic Peninsula
 

435
00:11:40,119 --> 00:11:43,090
right here on the Antarctic Peninsula
it's a busy slide I'd like to call your

436
00:11:43,090 --> 00:11:43,100
it's a busy slide I'd like to call your
 

437
00:11:43,100 --> 00:11:45,999
it's a busy slide I'd like to call your
attention to these two profiles the

438
00:11:45,999 --> 00:11:46,009
attention to these two profiles the
 

439
00:11:46,009 --> 00:11:49,710
attention to these two profiles the
oxygen isotopic ratio and the sulfate

440
00:11:49,710 --> 00:11:49,720
oxygen isotopic ratio and the sulfate
 

441
00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,660
oxygen isotopic ratio and the sulfate
concentrations this is just the upper 40

442
00:11:52,660 --> 00:11:52,670
concentrations this is just the upper 40
 

443
00:11:52,670 --> 00:11:56,199
concentrations this is just the upper 40
meters of a 200-meter core I'm using

444
00:11:56,199 --> 00:11:56,209
meters of a 200-meter core I'm using
 

445
00:11:56,209 --> 00:11:59,319
meters of a 200-meter core I'm using
this to illustrate to you how we date

446
00:11:59,319 --> 00:11:59,329
this to illustrate to you how we date
 

447
00:11:59,329 --> 00:12:02,559
this to illustrate to you how we date
course ideally we like to date them year

448
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:02,569
course ideally we like to date them year
 

449
00:12:02,569 --> 00:12:05,619
course ideally we like to date them year
by year to do that requires that we

450
00:12:05,619 --> 00:12:05,629
by year to do that requires that we
 

451
00:12:05,629 --> 00:12:08,499
by year to do that requires that we
discern or measure something that has a

452
00:12:08,499 --> 00:12:08,509
discern or measure something that has a
 

453
00:12:08,509 --> 00:12:11,639
discern or measure something that has a
seasonal signal and here in Delta o-18

454
00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:11,649
seasonal signal and here in Delta o-18
 

455
00:12:11,649 --> 00:12:14,949
seasonal signal and here in Delta o-18
we see summer winter summer winter

456
00:12:14,949 --> 00:12:14,959
we see summer winter summer winter
 

457
00:12:14,959 --> 00:12:18,669
we see summer winter summer winter
summer winter we see high flux of

458
00:12:18,669 --> 00:12:18,679
summer winter we see high flux of
 

459
00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,030
summer winter we see high flux of
sulfate every spring so essentially we

460
00:12:22,030 --> 00:12:22,040
sulfate every spring so essentially we
 

461
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,429
sulfate every spring so essentially we
can drill through it's like a layer cake

462
00:12:24,429 --> 00:12:24,439
can drill through it's like a layer cake
 

463
00:12:24,439 --> 00:12:27,429
can drill through it's like a layer cake
and when the accumulation rate is high

464
00:12:27,429 --> 00:12:27,439
and when the accumulation rate is high
 

465
00:12:27,439 --> 00:12:29,379
and when the accumulation rate is high
enough we pick up these seasonal

466
00:12:29,379 --> 00:12:29,389
enough we pick up these seasonal
 

467
00:12:29,389 --> 00:12:32,350
enough we pick up these seasonal
variations and we can precisely date

468
00:12:32,350 --> 00:12:32,360
variations and we can precisely date
 

469
00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:37,900
variations and we can precisely date
these cores these cores provide an

470
00:12:37,900 --> 00:12:37,910
these cores these cores provide an
 

471
00:12:37,910 --> 00:12:39,999
these cores these cores provide an
opportunity to reconstruct the Earth's

472
00:12:39,999 --> 00:12:40,009
opportunity to reconstruct the Earth's
 

473
00:12:40,009 --> 00:12:42,699
opportunity to reconstruct the Earth's
volcanic history this happens to be the

474
00:12:42,699 --> 00:12:42,709
volcanic history this happens to be the
 

475
00:12:42,709 --> 00:12:46,569
volcanic history this happens to be the
eruption of mount pinatubo in 91 and we

476
00:12:46,569 --> 00:12:46,579
eruption of mount pinatubo in 91 and we
 

477
00:12:46,579 --> 00:12:50,109
eruption of mount pinatubo in 91 and we
know that it the sulfur the sulfuric

478
00:12:50,109 --> 00:12:50,119
know that it the sulfur the sulfuric
 

479
00:12:50,119 --> 00:12:54,210
know that it the sulfur the sulfuric
acid droplets have essentially the

480
00:12:54,210 --> 00:12:54,220
acid droplets have essentially the
 

481
00:12:54,220 --> 00:12:59,169
acid droplets have essentially the
cooling in 92 and 93 was attributed to

482
00:12:59,169 --> 00:12:59,179
cooling in 92 and 93 was attributed to
 

483
00:12:59,179 --> 00:13:02,169
cooling in 92 and 93 was attributed to
the sulfuric acid suspended in the

484
00:13:02,169 --> 00:13:02,179
the sulfuric acid suspended in the
 

485
00:13:02,179 --> 00:13:06,220
the sulfuric acid suspended in the
stratosphere well we can take a record

486
00:13:06,220 --> 00:13:06,230
stratosphere well we can take a record
 

487
00:13:06,230 --> 00:13:08,650
stratosphere well we can take a record
like that with ice cores and go back in

488
00:13:08,650 --> 00:13:08,660
like that with ice cores and go back in
 

489
00:13:08,660 --> 00:13:11,879
like that with ice cores and go back in
time this again a busy slide but the

490
00:13:11,879 --> 00:13:11,889
time this again a busy slide but the
 

491
00:13:11,889 --> 00:13:16,289
time this again a busy slide but the
to this is excess sulfate we have to

492
00:13:16,289 --> 00:13:16,299
to this is excess sulfate we have to
 

493
00:13:16,299 --> 00:13:19,799
to this is excess sulfate we have to
extract the oceanic sulfate component

494
00:13:19,799 --> 00:13:19,809
extract the oceanic sulfate component
 

495
00:13:19,809 --> 00:13:22,109
extract the oceanic sulfate component
and we do that by measuring chlorine or

496
00:13:22,109 --> 00:13:22,119
and we do that by measuring chlorine or
 

497
00:13:22,119 --> 00:13:25,710
and we do that by measuring chlorine or
sodium what we are left with is the

498
00:13:25,710 --> 00:13:25,720
sodium what we are left with is the
 

499
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,979
sodium what we are left with is the
excess and the two prominent sources of

500
00:13:28,979 --> 00:13:28,989
excess and the two prominent sources of
 

501
00:13:28,989 --> 00:13:33,389
excess and the two prominent sources of
excess sulfate are volcanism and the

502
00:13:33,389 --> 00:13:33,399
excess sulfate are volcanism and the
 

503
00:13:33,399 --> 00:13:35,759
excess sulfate are volcanism and the
burning of fossil fuels both of which we

504
00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:35,769
burning of fossil fuels both of which we
 

505
00:13:35,769 --> 00:13:38,519
burning of fossil fuels both of which we
see in this diagram these are the

506
00:13:38,519 --> 00:13:38,529
see in this diagram these are the
 

507
00:13:38,529 --> 00:13:41,819
see in this diagram these are the
individual eruptions the spikes this is

508
00:13:41,819 --> 00:13:41,829
individual eruptions the spikes this is
 

509
00:13:41,829 --> 00:13:43,979
individual eruptions the spikes this is
Northern Hemisphere two sites in

510
00:13:43,979 --> 00:13:43,989
Northern Hemisphere two sites in
 

511
00:13:43,989 --> 00:13:47,269
Northern Hemisphere two sites in
Greenland and two sites in Antarctica

512
00:13:47,269 --> 00:13:47,279
Greenland and two sites in Antarctica
 

513
00:13:47,279 --> 00:13:50,549
Greenland and two sites in Antarctica
and you can see that although there are

514
00:13:50,549 --> 00:13:50,559
and you can see that although there are
 

515
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,530
and you can see that although there are
many many eruptions in the northern

516
00:13:52,530 --> 00:13:52,540
many many eruptions in the northern
 

517
00:13:52,540 --> 00:13:55,349
many many eruptions in the northern
hemisphere those eruptions that are

518
00:13:55,349 --> 00:13:55,359
hemisphere those eruptions that are
 

519
00:13:55,359 --> 00:13:57,479
hemisphere those eruptions that are
preserved both in the North and the

520
00:13:57,479 --> 00:13:57,489
preserved both in the North and the
 

521
00:13:57,489 --> 00:14:00,720
preserved both in the North and the
South are much fewer I'd point out the

522
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:00,730
South are much fewer I'd point out the
 

523
00:14:00,730 --> 00:14:03,840
South are much fewer I'd point out the
eruption of tambora right here it's part

524
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:03,850
eruption of tambora right here it's part
 

525
00:14:03,850 --> 00:14:08,309
eruption of tambora right here it's part
of this couplet tambora erupted in 1815

526
00:14:08,309 --> 00:14:08,319
of this couplet tambora erupted in 1815
 

527
00:14:08,319 --> 00:14:12,150
of this couplet tambora erupted in 1815
and it was credited with the year

528
00:14:12,150 --> 00:14:12,160
and it was credited with the year
 

529
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,629
and it was credited with the year
without a summer in 1816 however if you

530
00:14:15,629 --> 00:14:15,639
without a summer in 1816 however if you
 

531
00:14:15,639 --> 00:14:17,429
without a summer in 1816 however if you
go back and you look at the climate

532
00:14:17,429 --> 00:14:17,439
go back and you look at the climate
 

533
00:14:17,439 --> 00:14:20,369
go back and you look at the climate
history the temperature records it was

534
00:14:20,369 --> 00:14:20,379
history the temperature records it was
 

535
00:14:20,379 --> 00:14:22,590
history the temperature records it was
found that actually the climate in that

536
00:14:22,590 --> 00:14:22,600
found that actually the climate in that
 

537
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,129
found that actually the climate in that
decade from 1810 to 1820 the

538
00:14:26,129 --> 00:14:26,139
decade from 1810 to 1820 the
 

539
00:14:26,139 --> 00:14:28,409
decade from 1810 to 1820 the
temperatures were actually declining

540
00:14:28,409 --> 00:14:28,419
temperatures were actually declining
 

541
00:14:28,419 --> 00:14:32,340
temperatures were actually declining
before tambora erupted and this was used

542
00:14:32,340 --> 00:14:32,350
before tambora erupted and this was used
 

543
00:14:32,350 --> 00:14:35,699
before tambora erupted and this was used
as evidence against the potential of a

544
00:14:35,699 --> 00:14:35,709
as evidence against the potential of a
 

545
00:14:35,709 --> 00:14:39,960
as evidence against the potential of a
volcano temperature linkage however with

546
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:39,970
volcano temperature linkage however with
 

547
00:14:39,970 --> 00:14:42,780
volcano temperature linkage however with
these ice cores putting them together we

548
00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:42,790
these ice cores putting them together we
 

549
00:14:42,790 --> 00:14:47,519
these ice cores putting them together we
found another eruption in 1809 virtually

550
00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:47,529
found another eruption in 1809 virtually
 

551
00:14:47,529 --> 00:14:50,309
found another eruption in 1809 virtually
the same magnitude as tambora very

552
00:14:50,309 --> 00:14:50,319
the same magnitude as tambora very
 

553
00:14:50,319 --> 00:14:53,100
the same magnitude as tambora very
outstanding event of the same magnitude

554
00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:53,110
outstanding event of the same magnitude
 

555
00:14:53,110 --> 00:14:56,279
outstanding event of the same magnitude
in terms of the sulfate it produced in

556
00:14:56,279 --> 00:14:56,289
in terms of the sulfate it produced in
 

557
00:14:56,289 --> 00:14:59,210
in terms of the sulfate it produced in
the northern hemisphere but not recorded

558
00:14:59,210 --> 00:14:59,220
the northern hemisphere but not recorded
 

559
00:14:59,220 --> 00:15:02,909
the northern hemisphere but not recorded
historically but well preserved in the

560
00:15:02,909 --> 00:15:02,919
historically but well preserved in the
 

561
00:15:02,919 --> 00:15:06,059
historically but well preserved in the
ice core and we speculate that was this

562
00:15:06,059 --> 00:15:06,069
ice core and we speculate that was this
 

563
00:15:06,069 --> 00:15:08,939
ice core and we speculate that was this
eruption in 1809 that really set the

564
00:15:08,939 --> 00:15:08,949
eruption in 1809 that really set the
 

565
00:15:08,949 --> 00:15:11,879
eruption in 1809 that really set the
stage for the cooling of that decade and

566
00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:11,889
stage for the cooling of that decade and
 

567
00:15:11,889 --> 00:15:13,739
stage for the cooling of that decade and
then of course adding insult to injury

568
00:15:13,739 --> 00:15:13,749
then of course adding insult to injury
 

569
00:15:13,749 --> 00:15:18,090
then of course adding insult to injury
with tambora we recorded the lowest the

570
00:15:18,090 --> 00:15:18,100
with tambora we recorded the lowest the
 

571
00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:21,900
with tambora we recorded the lowest the
decade 1810 to 1820 the lowest

572
00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:21,910
decade 1810 to 1820 the lowest
 

573
00:15:21,910 --> 00:15:25,390
decade 1810 to 1820 the lowest
temperatures on record

574
00:15:25,390 --> 00:15:25,400

 

575
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,430

when we collect the ice course from many

576
00:15:28,430 --> 00:15:28,440
when we collect the ice course from many
 

577
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,350
when we collect the ice course from many
locations in other words we have a

578
00:15:30,350 --> 00:15:30,360
locations in other words we have a
 

579
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,320
locations in other words we have a
diversity of ice core records we can

580
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:33,330
diversity of ice core records we can
 

581
00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:35,420
diversity of ice core records we can
begin to study different components of

582
00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:35,430
begin to study different components of
 

583
00:15:35,430 --> 00:15:40,510
begin to study different components of
the earth system just a brief word about

584
00:15:40,510 --> 00:15:40,520
the earth system just a brief word about
 

585
00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,700
the earth system just a brief word about
preliminary results actually this was a

586
00:15:43,700 --> 00:15:43,710
preliminary results actually this was a
 

587
00:15:43,710 --> 00:15:46,460
preliminary results actually this was a
small project preliminary funded by NASA

588
00:15:46,460 --> 00:15:46,470
small project preliminary funded by NASA
 

589
00:15:46,470 --> 00:15:51,260
small project preliminary funded by NASA
to look at the ice caps in franz josef

590
00:15:51,260 --> 00:15:51,270
to look at the ice caps in franz josef
 

591
00:15:51,270 --> 00:15:54,740
to look at the ice caps in franz josef
land in the rut in the Russian Arctic

592
00:15:54,740 --> 00:15:54,750
land in the rut in the Russian Arctic
 

593
00:15:54,750 --> 00:15:58,100
land in the rut in the Russian Arctic
and franz josef land located here at 80

594
00:15:58,100 --> 00:15:58,110
and franz josef land located here at 80
 

595
00:15:58,110 --> 00:16:01,550
and franz josef land located here at 80
degrees north is the furthest north land

596
00:16:01,550 --> 00:16:01,560
degrees north is the furthest north land
 

597
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,720
degrees north is the furthest north land
mass in that sector we looked at five

598
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:05,730
mass in that sector we looked at five
 

599
00:16:05,730 --> 00:16:08,870
mass in that sector we looked at five
different ice caps and we found that on

600
00:16:08,870 --> 00:16:08,880
different ice caps and we found that on
 

601
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,240
different ice caps and we found that on
the island of Graham Bell the windy dome

602
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:11,250
the island of Graham Bell the windy dome
 

603
00:16:11,250 --> 00:16:14,570
the island of Graham Bell the windy dome
ice cap contains a reasonably well

604
00:16:14,570 --> 00:16:14,580
ice cap contains a reasonably well
 

605
00:16:14,580 --> 00:16:17,590
ice cap contains a reasonably well
preserved record and is 500 meters thick

606
00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:17,600
preserved record and is 500 meters thick
 

607
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,240
preserved record and is 500 meters thick
now give you these data are very

608
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:20,250
now give you these data are very
 

609
00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:22,880
now give you these data are very
preliminary we were only drilling with a

610
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:22,890
preliminary we were only drilling with a
 

611
00:16:22,890 --> 00:16:25,580
preliminary we were only drilling with a
hand auger this means we extracted a

612
00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:25,590
hand auger this means we extracted a
 

613
00:16:25,590 --> 00:16:28,250
hand auger this means we extracted a
20-metre core so the record does not go

614
00:16:28,250 --> 00:16:28,260
20-metre core so the record does not go
 

615
00:16:28,260 --> 00:16:32,120
20-metre core so the record does not go
back very long in time but what we found

616
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:32,130
back very long in time but what we found
 

617
00:16:32,130 --> 00:16:35,780
back very long in time but what we found
is that increased chloride concentration

618
00:16:35,780 --> 00:16:35,790
is that increased chloride concentration
 

619
00:16:35,790 --> 00:16:38,290
is that increased chloride concentration
chloride isn't green that when chloride

620
00:16:38,290 --> 00:16:38,300
chloride isn't green that when chloride
 

621
00:16:38,300 --> 00:16:41,780
chloride isn't green that when chloride
concentration is high the concentration

622
00:16:41,780 --> 00:16:41,790
concentration is high the concentration
 

623
00:16:41,790 --> 00:16:45,980
concentration is high the concentration
of sea ice in that area is low so in

624
00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:45,990
of sea ice in that area is low so in
 

625
00:16:45,990 --> 00:16:48,470
of sea ice in that area is low so in
other words low sea ice more open water

626
00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:48,480
other words low sea ice more open water
 

627
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,680
other words low sea ice more open water
a greater concentration of chloride and

628
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:51,690
a greater concentration of chloride and
 

629
00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:54,410
a greater concentration of chloride and
the r-square this is only a 10 year

630
00:16:54,410 --> 00:16:54,420
the r-square this is only a 10 year
 

631
00:16:54,420 --> 00:16:56,480
the r-square this is only a 10 year
record but they are square or

632
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:56,490
record but they are square or
 

633
00:16:56,490 --> 00:16:58,550
record but they are square or
coefficient of determination is 0 point

634
00:16:58,550 --> 00:16:58,560
coefficient of determination is 0 point
 

635
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:02,630
coefficient of determination is 0 point
3 4 it's pretty good to explain 4334

636
00:17:02,630 --> 00:17:02,640
3 4 it's pretty good to explain 4334
 

637
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,410
3 4 it's pretty good to explain 4334
percent of the variance and this is just

638
00:17:06,410 --> 00:17:06,420
percent of the variance and this is just
 

639
00:17:06,420 --> 00:17:08,360
percent of the variance and this is just
a linear plot of the increase in

640
00:17:08,360 --> 00:17:08,370
a linear plot of the increase in
 

641
00:17:08,370 --> 00:17:11,260
a linear plot of the increase in
chloride against the decrease in sea ice

642
00:17:11,260 --> 00:17:11,270
chloride against the decrease in sea ice
 

643
00:17:11,270 --> 00:17:13,939
chloride against the decrease in sea ice
concentration so we're optimistic that

644
00:17:13,939 --> 00:17:13,949
concentration so we're optimistic that
 

645
00:17:13,949 --> 00:17:16,970
concentration so we're optimistic that
course particularly from the windy dome

646
00:17:16,970 --> 00:17:16,980
course particularly from the windy dome
 

647
00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:20,800
course particularly from the windy dome
may provide a long record of sea ice

648
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:20,810
may provide a long record of sea ice
 

649
00:17:20,810 --> 00:17:25,370
may provide a long record of sea ice
variability I'd like to move to the

650
00:17:25,370 --> 00:17:25,380
variability I'd like to move to the
 

651
00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:27,710
variability I'd like to move to the
southern hemisphere to the cal kaya ice

652
00:17:27,710 --> 00:17:27,720
southern hemisphere to the cal kaya ice
 

653
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,970
southern hemisphere to the cal kaya ice
cap it sits at about 18,000 feet in the

654
00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:31,980
cap it sits at about 18,000 feet in the
 

655
00:17:31,980 --> 00:17:35,840
cap it sits at about 18,000 feet in the
Andes at 14 degrees south this was

656
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:35,850
Andes at 14 degrees south this was
 

657
00:17:35,850 --> 00:17:37,250
Andes at 14 degrees south this was
actually one of the first

658
00:17:37,250 --> 00:17:37,260
actually one of the first
 

659
00:17:37,260 --> 00:17:39,530
actually one of the first
drilling projects outside the polar

660
00:17:39,530 --> 00:17:39,540
drilling projects outside the polar
 

661
00:17:39,540 --> 00:17:43,760
drilling projects outside the polar
regions kal kya sits here it covers

662
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:43,770
regions kal kya sits here it covers
 

663
00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:46,760
regions kal kya sits here it covers
about 60 square kilometers the local

664
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:46,770
about 60 square kilometers the local
 

665
00:17:46,770 --> 00:17:48,920
about 60 square kilometers the local
mode of transportation shows you that it

666
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:48,930
mode of transportation shows you that it
 

667
00:17:48,930 --> 00:17:52,850
mode of transportation shows you that it
is a very remote area the precipitation

668
00:17:52,850 --> 00:17:52,860
is a very remote area the precipitation
 

669
00:17:52,860 --> 00:17:56,690
is a very remote area the precipitation
to this ice cap comes from the Andes in

670
00:17:56,690 --> 00:17:56,700
to this ice cap comes from the Andes in
 

671
00:17:56,700 --> 00:17:58,940
to this ice cap comes from the Andes in
the form of these convective storms

672
00:17:58,940 --> 00:17:58,950
the form of these convective storms
 

673
00:17:58,950 --> 00:18:01,130
the form of these convective storms
these are people on the surface for

674
00:18:01,130 --> 00:18:01,140
these are people on the surface for
 

675
00:18:01,140 --> 00:18:03,620
these are people on the surface for
scale just to show you that once you're

676
00:18:03,620 --> 00:18:03,630
scale just to show you that once you're
 

677
00:18:03,630 --> 00:18:08,830
scale just to show you that once you're
up on these ice caps they are very large

678
00:18:08,830 --> 00:18:08,840
up on these ice caps they are very large
 

679
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,720
up on these ice caps they are very large
this was the first use of solar power

680
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:11,730
this was the first use of solar power
 

681
00:18:11,730 --> 00:18:14,480
this was the first use of solar power
because of the remote nature of the site

682
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:14,490
because of the remote nature of the site
 

683
00:18:14,490 --> 00:18:17,510
because of the remote nature of the site
it was virtually impossible to drill

684
00:18:17,510 --> 00:18:17,520
it was virtually impossible to drill
 

685
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,870
it was virtually impossible to drill
this in the usual antarctic tradition

686
00:18:20,870 --> 00:18:20,880
this in the usual antarctic tradition
 

687
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:26,510
this in the usual antarctic tradition
and we used 60 solar panels to extract

688
00:18:26,510 --> 00:18:26,520
and we used 60 solar panels to extract
 

689
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,030
and we used 60 solar panels to extract
two cores to bedrock now this is the

690
00:18:29,030 --> 00:18:29,040
two cores to bedrock now this is the
 

691
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,060
two cores to bedrock now this is the
same ice cap in which i initially showed

692
00:18:32,060 --> 00:18:32,070
same ice cap in which i initially showed
 

693
00:18:32,070 --> 00:18:34,760
same ice cap in which i initially showed
you that vertical margin and this is

694
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:34,770
you that vertical margin and this is
 

695
00:18:34,770 --> 00:18:36,260
you that vertical margin and this is
what it looks like if you drill through

696
00:18:36,260 --> 00:18:36,270
what it looks like if you drill through
 

697
00:18:36,270 --> 00:18:39,230
what it looks like if you drill through
it these are core sections and these are

698
00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:39,240
it these are core sections and these are
 

699
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,320
it these are core sections and these are
those visible dust bands at a hundred

700
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:42,330
those visible dust bands at a hundred
 

701
00:18:42,330 --> 00:18:44,480
those visible dust bands at a hundred
and thirty nine meters in the core we

702
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:44,490
and thirty nine meters in the core we
 

703
00:18:44,490 --> 00:18:47,030
and thirty nine meters in the core we
still have well-preserved s bands this

704
00:18:47,030 --> 00:18:47,040
still have well-preserved s bands this
 

705
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,640
still have well-preserved s bands this
is what i mean by annual resolution

706
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:49,650
is what i mean by annual resolution
 

707
00:18:49,650 --> 00:18:54,860
is what i mean by annual resolution
where we count back year by year the kel

708
00:18:54,860 --> 00:18:54,870
where we count back year by year the kel
 

709
00:18:54,870 --> 00:18:58,580
where we count back year by year the kel
kya provided a 1500 year record from

710
00:18:58,580 --> 00:18:58,590
kya provided a 1500 year record from
 

711
00:18:58,590 --> 00:19:01,040
kya provided a 1500 year record from
this region the first record of that

712
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:01,050
this region the first record of that
 

713
00:19:01,050 --> 00:19:04,330
this region the first record of that
length of that quality from the tropics

714
00:19:04,330 --> 00:19:04,340
length of that quality from the tropics
 

715
00:19:04,340 --> 00:19:08,390
length of that quality from the tropics
we extracted a history of the dustiness

716
00:19:08,390 --> 00:19:08,400
we extracted a history of the dustiness
 

717
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,740
we extracted a history of the dustiness
of the atmosphere the accumulation in

718
00:19:12,740 --> 00:19:12,750
of the atmosphere the accumulation in
 

719
00:19:12,750 --> 00:19:14,380
of the atmosphere the accumulation in
other words the changes in precipitation

720
00:19:14,380 --> 00:19:14,390
other words the changes in precipitation
 

721
00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:18,500
other words the changes in precipitation
and the oxygen isotopic ratio tells us

722
00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:18,510
and the oxygen isotopic ratio tells us
 

723
00:19:18,510 --> 00:19:20,750
and the oxygen isotopic ratio tells us
something about temperature and I want

724
00:19:20,750 --> 00:19:20,760
something about temperature and I want
 

725
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,060
something about temperature and I want
to focus in the next few slides just on

726
00:19:23,060 --> 00:19:23,070
to focus in the next few slides just on
 

727
00:19:23,070 --> 00:19:26,510
to focus in the next few slides just on
this record the 0 18 and this feature

728
00:19:26,510 --> 00:19:26,520
this record the 0 18 and this feature
 

729
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,290
this record the 0 18 and this feature
here which is the little ice age and the

730
00:19:30,290 --> 00:19:30,300
here which is the little ice age and the
 

731
00:19:30,300 --> 00:19:36,350
here which is the little ice age and the
precipitation history on the the bottom

732
00:19:36,350 --> 00:19:36,360
precipitation history on the the bottom
 

733
00:19:36,360 --> 00:19:38,570
precipitation history on the the bottom
or the bottom and the middle graph are

734
00:19:38,570 --> 00:19:38,580
or the bottom and the middle graph are
 

735
00:19:38,580 --> 00:19:41,870
or the bottom and the middle graph are
the oxygen isotopic records going back

736
00:19:41,870 --> 00:19:41,880
the oxygen isotopic records going back
 

737
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:46,970
the oxygen isotopic records going back
to 1600 from kal kya we always drill to

738
00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:46,980
to 1600 from kal kya we always drill to
 

739
00:19:46,980 --> 00:19:49,910
to 1600 from kal kya we always drill to
parallel course at a minimum the reason

740
00:19:49,910 --> 00:19:49,920
parallel course at a minimum the reason
 

741
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,000
parallel course at a minimum the reason
is if you find something unusual in your

742
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:53,010
is if you find something unusual in your
 

743
00:19:53,010 --> 00:19:56,090
is if you find something unusual in your
core history and you cannot replicate it

744
00:19:56,090 --> 00:19:56,100
core history and you cannot replicate it
 

745
00:19:56,100 --> 00:19:59,920
core history and you cannot replicate it
in a parallel core then you have to

746
00:19:59,920 --> 00:19:59,930
in a parallel core then you have to
 

747
00:19:59,930 --> 00:20:02,570
in a parallel core then you have to
suspect it may be you have an artifact

748
00:20:02,570 --> 00:20:02,580
suspect it may be you have an artifact
 

749
00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:05,000
suspect it may be you have an artifact
if you can reproduce it it gives you

750
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:05,010
if you can reproduce it it gives you
 

751
00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:09,400
if you can reproduce it it gives you
confidence that you are reconstructing a

752
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:09,410
confidence that you are reconstructing a
 

753
00:20:09,410 --> 00:20:13,310
confidence that you are reconstructing a
respectable history so you can see the

754
00:20:13,310 --> 00:20:13,320
respectable history so you can see the
 

755
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,980
respectable history so you can see the
two cores give essentially the same

756
00:20:15,980 --> 00:20:15,990
two cores give essentially the same
 

757
00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:19,100
two cores give essentially the same
isotopic results but we've plotted those

758
00:20:19,100 --> 00:20:19,110
isotopic results but we've plotted those
 

759
00:20:19,110 --> 00:20:22,300
isotopic results but we've plotted those
here against the northern hemisphere

760
00:20:22,300 --> 00:20:22,310
here against the northern hemisphere
 

761
00:20:22,310 --> 00:20:26,480
here against the northern hemisphere
10-year average temperatures and I'd

762
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:26,490
10-year average temperatures and I'd
 

763
00:20:26,490 --> 00:20:28,700
10-year average temperatures and I'd
like to point out two things first you

764
00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:28,710
like to point out two things first you
 

765
00:20:28,710 --> 00:20:32,300
like to point out two things first you
can see that the general shape of the

766
00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:32,310
can see that the general shape of the
 

767
00:20:32,310 --> 00:20:36,170
can see that the general shape of the
curves is very similar secondly that

768
00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:36,180
curves is very similar secondly that
 

769
00:20:36,180 --> 00:20:39,050
curves is very similar secondly that
this Little Ice Age period and you'll

770
00:20:39,050 --> 00:20:39,060
this Little Ice Age period and you'll
 

771
00:20:39,060 --> 00:20:41,080
this Little Ice Age period and you'll
hear more about that from dr. McElroy

772
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:41,090
hear more about that from dr. McElroy
 

773
00:20:41,090 --> 00:20:44,090
hear more about that from dr. McElroy
but it was essentially a cool phase in

774
00:20:44,090 --> 00:20:44,100
but it was essentially a cool phase in
 

775
00:20:44,100 --> 00:20:46,330
but it was essentially a cool phase in
the Earth's climate history from around

776
00:20:46,330 --> 00:20:46,340
the Earth's climate history from around
 

777
00:20:46,340 --> 00:20:49,460
the Earth's climate history from around
1450 to about eighteen eighty ad in

778
00:20:49,460 --> 00:20:49,470
1450 to about eighteen eighty ad in
 

779
00:20:49,470 --> 00:20:51,770
1450 to about eighteen eighty ad in
which it's estimated that temperatures

780
00:20:51,770 --> 00:20:51,780
which it's estimated that temperatures
 

781
00:20:51,780 --> 00:20:55,220
which it's estimated that temperatures
were about a half a degree cooler also

782
00:20:55,220 --> 00:20:55,230
were about a half a degree cooler also
 

783
00:20:55,230 --> 00:20:56,870
were about a half a degree cooler also
notice this decade that I've already

784
00:20:56,870 --> 00:20:56,880
notice this decade that I've already
 

785
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,570
notice this decade that I've already
mentioned the coolest decade on record

786
00:20:59,570 --> 00:20:59,580
mentioned the coolest decade on record
 

787
00:20:59,580 --> 00:21:03,560
mentioned the coolest decade on record
18 10 to 18 20 faithfully recorded by

788
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:03,570
18 10 to 18 20 faithfully recorded by
 

789
00:21:03,570 --> 00:21:06,800
18 10 to 18 20 faithfully recorded by
this ice cap at 18,000 feet at 14

790
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:06,810
this ice cap at 18,000 feet at 14
 

791
00:21:06,810 --> 00:21:13,730
this ice cap at 18,000 feet at 14
degrees south south america is very rich

792
00:21:13,730 --> 00:21:13,740
degrees south south america is very rich
 

793
00:21:13,740 --> 00:21:16,400
degrees south south america is very rich
in archaeological history this happens

794
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:16,410
in archaeological history this happens
 

795
00:21:16,410 --> 00:21:21,980
in archaeological history this happens
to be Machu Picchu in this slide we've

796
00:21:21,980 --> 00:21:21,990
to be Machu Picchu in this slide we've
 

797
00:21:21,990 --> 00:21:25,160
to be Machu Picchu in this slide we've
plotted the 1500 year record of net

798
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:25,170
plotted the 1500 year record of net
 

799
00:21:25,170 --> 00:21:28,700
plotted the 1500 year record of net
accumulation showing essentially periods

800
00:21:28,700 --> 00:21:28,710
accumulation showing essentially periods
 

801
00:21:28,710 --> 00:21:31,640
accumulation showing essentially periods
where we had less accumulation and more

802
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:31,650
where we had less accumulation and more
 

803
00:21:31,650 --> 00:21:33,950
where we had less accumulation and more
accumulation in the southern highlands

804
00:21:33,950 --> 00:21:33,960
accumulation in the southern highlands
 

805
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,280
accumulation in the southern highlands
of Peru over here we're looking at the

806
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:37,290
of Peru over here we're looking at the
 

807
00:21:37,290 --> 00:21:40,160
of Peru over here we're looking at the
rise in the fall of the cultures in that

808
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:40,170
rise in the fall of the cultures in that
 

809
00:21:40,170 --> 00:21:42,770
rise in the fall of the cultures in that
area and I want you to focus on the

810
00:21:42,770 --> 00:21:42,780
area and I want you to focus on the
 

811
00:21:42,780 --> 00:21:44,840
area and I want you to focus on the
cultures here in the southern highlands

812
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:44,850
cultures here in the southern highlands
 

813
00:21:44,850 --> 00:21:49,670
cultures here in the southern highlands
and we can see that during this this

814
00:21:49,670 --> 00:21:49,680
and we can see that during this this
 

815
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,030
and we can see that during this this
time we have fairly high accumulation

816
00:21:53,030 --> 00:21:53,040
time we have fairly high accumulation
 

817
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,650
time we have fairly high accumulation
and we have this particular culture the

818
00:21:57,650 --> 00:21:57,660
and we have this particular culture the
 

819
00:21:57,660 --> 00:22:00,310
and we have this particular culture the
whorey culture

820
00:22:00,310 --> 00:22:00,320
whorey culture
 

821
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,330
whorey culture
as we enter this period of reduced

822
00:22:04,330 --> 00:22:04,340
as we enter this period of reduced
 

823
00:22:04,340 --> 00:22:07,600
as we enter this period of reduced
accumulation that culture essentially

824
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:07,610
accumulation that culture essentially
 

825
00:22:07,610 --> 00:22:10,960
accumulation that culture essentially
leaves the highlands and the cultures

826
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:10,970
leaves the highlands and the cultures
 

827
00:22:10,970 --> 00:22:13,629
leaves the highlands and the cultures
that does not return to the southern

828
00:22:13,629 --> 00:22:13,639
that does not return to the southern
 

829
00:22:13,639 --> 00:22:15,909
that does not return to the southern
highlands of Peru until this more

830
00:22:15,909 --> 00:22:15,919
highlands of Peru until this more
 

831
00:22:15,919 --> 00:22:19,330
highlands of Peru until this more
pluvial period and this is actually was

832
00:22:19,330 --> 00:22:19,340
pluvial period and this is actually was
 

833
00:22:19,340 --> 00:22:22,180
pluvial period and this is actually was
the rise of the Inca Empire and of

834
00:22:22,180 --> 00:22:22,190
the rise of the Inca Empire and of
 

835
00:22:22,190 --> 00:22:24,850
the rise of the Inca Empire and of
course determination is the entry of

836
00:22:24,850 --> 00:22:24,860
course determination is the entry of
 

837
00:22:24,860 --> 00:22:27,789
course determination is the entry of
Spanish into South America when all of

838
00:22:27,789 --> 00:22:27,799
Spanish into South America when all of
 

839
00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:30,220
Spanish into South America when all of
the Highland when all of the cultures

840
00:22:30,220 --> 00:22:30,230
the Highland when all of the cultures
 

841
00:22:30,230 --> 00:22:33,730
the Highland when all of the cultures
essentially ceased what we know is that

842
00:22:33,730 --> 00:22:33,740
essentially ceased what we know is that
 

843
00:22:33,740 --> 00:22:37,810
essentially ceased what we know is that
the Highland that the the cultures in

844
00:22:37,810 --> 00:22:37,820
the Highland that the the cultures in
 

845
00:22:37,820 --> 00:22:39,850
the Highland that the the cultures in
the highland areas and in the coastal

846
00:22:39,850 --> 00:22:39,860
the highland areas and in the coastal
 

847
00:22:39,860 --> 00:22:42,330
the highland areas and in the coastal
areas tend to function in anti-phase

848
00:22:42,330 --> 00:22:42,340
areas tend to function in anti-phase
 

849
00:22:42,340 --> 00:22:45,759
areas tend to function in anti-phase
that is when one culture is flourishing

850
00:22:45,759 --> 00:22:45,769
that is when one culture is flourishing
 

851
00:22:45,769 --> 00:22:50,710
that is when one culture is flourishing
another culture is diminishing and when

852
00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:50,720
another culture is diminishing and when
 

853
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,720
another culture is diminishing and when
I talk about El Nino here in a minute I

854
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:52,730
I talk about El Nino here in a minute I
 

855
00:22:52,730 --> 00:22:57,789
I talk about El Nino here in a minute I
want you to remember this the general

856
00:22:57,789 --> 00:22:57,799
want you to remember this the general
 

857
00:22:57,799 --> 00:23:02,560
want you to remember this the general
the climate in Peru is dominated by the

858
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:02,570
the climate in Peru is dominated by the
 

859
00:23:02,570 --> 00:23:05,889
the climate in Peru is dominated by the
El Nino and that system called El Nino

860
00:23:05,889 --> 00:23:05,899
El Nino and that system called El Nino
 

861
00:23:05,899 --> 00:23:09,430
El Nino and that system called El Nino
Southern Oscillation or ENSO essentially

862
00:23:09,430 --> 00:23:09,440
Southern Oscillation or ENSO essentially
 

863
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,710
Southern Oscillation or ENSO essentially
during in so we get drought conditions

864
00:23:11,710 --> 00:23:11,720
during in so we get drought conditions
 

865
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,560
during in so we get drought conditions
in southern Peru and flooding conditions

866
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:14,570
in southern Peru and flooding conditions
 

867
00:23:14,570 --> 00:23:20,019
in southern Peru and flooding conditions
in northern Peru along the coast it just

868
00:23:20,019 --> 00:23:20,029
in northern Peru along the coast it just
 

869
00:23:20,029 --> 00:23:21,700
in northern Peru along the coast it just
happened that the drilling project on

870
00:23:21,700 --> 00:23:21,710
happened that the drilling project on
 

871
00:23:21,710 --> 00:23:24,310
happened that the drilling project on
kal kya the big drilling project

872
00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:24,320
kal kya the big drilling project
 

873
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:28,060
kal kya the big drilling project
occurred in 1983 in the middle of the

874
00:23:28,060 --> 00:23:28,070
occurred in 1983 in the middle of the
 

875
00:23:28,070 --> 00:23:32,049
occurred in 1983 in the middle of the
mega El Nino of 82 83 the largest in so

876
00:23:32,049 --> 00:23:32,059
mega El Nino of 82 83 the largest in so
 

877
00:23:32,059 --> 00:23:37,690
mega El Nino of 82 83 the largest in so
on record on this side we see the kel

878
00:23:37,690 --> 00:23:37,700
on record on this side we see the kel
 

879
00:23:37,700 --> 00:23:40,299
on record on this side we see the kel
kya ice cap as it normally appears in

880
00:23:40,299 --> 00:23:40,309
kya ice cap as it normally appears in
 

881
00:23:40,309 --> 00:23:44,019
kya ice cap as it normally appears in
19th it appeared in 1978 these are

882
00:23:44,019 --> 00:23:44,029
19th it appeared in 1978 these are
 

883
00:23:44,029 --> 00:23:47,169
19th it appeared in 1978 these are
people for scale this is the same shot

884
00:23:47,169 --> 00:23:47,179
people for scale this is the same shot
 

885
00:23:47,179 --> 00:23:51,960
people for scale this is the same shot
taken in 1983 and you can see that the

886
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:51,970
taken in 1983 and you can see that the
 

887
00:23:51,970 --> 00:23:54,490
taken in 1983 and you can see that the
essentially the drought in that area is

888
00:23:54,490 --> 00:23:54,500
essentially the drought in that area is
 

889
00:23:54,500 --> 00:23:59,830
essentially the drought in that area is
taking a toll on that ice cap this is

890
00:23:59,830 --> 00:23:59,840
taking a toll on that ice cap this is
 

891
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,649
taking a toll on that ice cap this is
just a very short record of the annual

892
00:24:02,649 --> 00:24:02,659
just a very short record of the annual
 

893
00:24:02,659 --> 00:24:05,200
just a very short record of the annual
layer thicknesses essentially what we

894
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:05,210
layer thicknesses essentially what we
 

895
00:24:05,210 --> 00:24:07,480
layer thicknesses essentially what we
found is that during the end so the

896
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:07,490
found is that during the end so the
 

897
00:24:07,490 --> 00:24:11,049
found is that during the end so the
accumulation rate on this ice cap drops

898
00:24:11,049 --> 00:24:11,059
accumulation rate on this ice cap drops
 

899
00:24:11,059 --> 00:24:13,680
accumulation rate on this ice cap drops
by at least twenty five percent

900
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:13,690
by at least twenty five percent
 

901
00:24:13,690 --> 00:24:20,340
by at least twenty five percent
this is the 82 83 El Nino and the 76 77

902
00:24:20,340 --> 00:24:20,350
this is the 82 83 El Nino and the 76 77
 

903
00:24:20,350 --> 00:24:25,320
this is the 82 83 El Nino and the 76 77
El Nino so we were encouraged that the

904
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:25,330
El Nino so we were encouraged that the
 

905
00:24:25,330 --> 00:24:27,480
El Nino so we were encouraged that the
ability to reconstruct these annual

906
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:27,490
ability to reconstruct these annual
 

907
00:24:27,490 --> 00:24:30,210
ability to reconstruct these annual
layers and their thicknesses might allow

908
00:24:30,210 --> 00:24:30,220
layers and their thicknesses might allow
 

909
00:24:30,220 --> 00:24:33,360
layers and their thicknesses might allow
us to reconstruct a much longer record

910
00:24:33,360 --> 00:24:33,370
us to reconstruct a much longer record
 

911
00:24:33,370 --> 00:24:36,600
us to reconstruct a much longer record
of El Nino Southern Oscillation for this

912
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:36,610
of El Nino Southern Oscillation for this
 

913
00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:39,180
of El Nino Southern Oscillation for this
region and in fact we have here the last

914
00:24:39,180 --> 00:24:39,190
region and in fact we have here the last
 

915
00:24:39,190 --> 00:24:42,799
region and in fact we have here the last
500 years it's very very busy slide and

916
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:42,809
500 years it's very very busy slide and
 

917
00:24:42,809 --> 00:24:47,240
500 years it's very very busy slide and
we have plotted here the El Ninos as

918
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:47,250
we have plotted here the El Ninos as
 

919
00:24:47,250 --> 00:24:50,789
we have plotted here the El Ninos as
reconstructed by bill Quinn back to 1500

920
00:24:50,789 --> 00:24:50,799
reconstructed by bill Quinn back to 1500
 

921
00:24:50,799 --> 00:24:54,419
reconstructed by bill Quinn back to 1500
ad to make a long story short we

922
00:24:54,419 --> 00:24:54,429
ad to make a long story short we
 

923
00:24:54,429 --> 00:24:57,810
ad to make a long story short we
essentially found that many of the that

924
00:24:57,810 --> 00:24:57,820
essentially found that many of the that
 

925
00:24:57,820 --> 00:25:00,299
essentially found that many of the that
most of the in cells were recorded in

926
00:25:00,299 --> 00:25:00,309
most of the in cells were recorded in
 

927
00:25:00,309 --> 00:25:03,960
most of the in cells were recorded in
kal kya as thin layers but we had more

928
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:03,970
kal kya as thin layers but we had more
 

929
00:25:03,970 --> 00:25:07,470
kal kya as thin layers but we had more
thin layers than we had in so and if you

930
00:25:07,470 --> 00:25:07,480
thin layers than we had in so and if you
 

931
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,360
thin layers than we had in so and if you
think about it it makes sense in that

932
00:25:09,360 --> 00:25:09,370
think about it it makes sense in that
 

933
00:25:09,370 --> 00:25:11,430
think about it it makes sense in that
there are many other reasons why you

934
00:25:11,430 --> 00:25:11,440
there are many other reasons why you
 

935
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,379
there are many other reasons why you
would have a year with reduced

936
00:25:13,379 --> 00:25:13,389
would have a year with reduced
 

937
00:25:13,389 --> 00:25:17,399
would have a year with reduced
accumulation later I'll show you I'm not

938
00:25:17,399 --> 00:25:17,409
accumulation later I'll show you I'm not
 

939
00:25:17,409 --> 00:25:19,710
accumulation later I'll show you I'm not
going to follow up on the in so part but

940
00:25:19,710 --> 00:25:19,720
going to follow up on the in so part but
 

941
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,539
going to follow up on the in so part but
we've just completed a project in

942
00:25:21,539 --> 00:25:21,549
we've just completed a project in
 

943
00:25:21,549 --> 00:25:23,820
we've just completed a project in
northern Peru in the previous slide

944
00:25:23,820 --> 00:25:23,830
northern Peru in the previous slide
 

945
00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:25,830
northern Peru in the previous slide
remember northern Peru gets more

946
00:25:25,830 --> 00:25:25,840
remember northern Peru gets more
 

947
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,159
remember northern Peru gets more
accumulation so we now hope to put these

948
00:25:29,159 --> 00:25:29,169
accumulation so we now hope to put these
 

949
00:25:29,169 --> 00:25:32,100
accumulation so we now hope to put these
two records together matching in the

950
00:25:32,100 --> 00:25:32,110
two records together matching in the
 

951
00:25:32,110 --> 00:25:35,909
two records together matching in the
South thin years within the North thick

952
00:25:35,909 --> 00:25:35,919
South thin years within the North thick
 

953
00:25:35,919 --> 00:25:40,830
South thin years within the North thick
years and see if we can better calibrate

954
00:25:40,830 --> 00:25:40,840
years and see if we can better calibrate
 

955
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,340
years and see if we can better calibrate
our current ability to reconstruct El

956
00:25:44,340 --> 00:25:44,350
our current ability to reconstruct El
 

957
00:25:44,350 --> 00:25:49,230
our current ability to reconstruct El
Nino Southern Oscillation ice cores also

958
00:25:49,230 --> 00:25:49,240
Nino Southern Oscillation ice cores also
 

959
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,450
Nino Southern Oscillation ice cores also
have the ability to provide us a

960
00:25:51,450 --> 00:25:51,460
have the ability to provide us a
 

961
00:25:51,460 --> 00:25:55,560
have the ability to provide us a
long-term perspective and this

962
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:55,570
long-term perspective and this
 

963
00:25:55,570 --> 00:25:57,930
long-term perspective and this
perspective is critical if we're going

964
00:25:57,930 --> 00:25:57,940
perspective is critical if we're going
 

965
00:25:57,940 --> 00:26:00,240
perspective is critical if we're going
to understand the natural variability of

966
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:00,250
to understand the natural variability of
 

967
00:26:00,250 --> 00:26:02,970
to understand the natural variability of
the climate system and we must

968
00:26:02,970 --> 00:26:02,980
the climate system and we must
 

969
00:26:02,980 --> 00:26:05,669
the climate system and we must
understand the natural variability if

970
00:26:05,669 --> 00:26:05,679
understand the natural variability if
 

971
00:26:05,679 --> 00:26:09,690
understand the natural variability if
we're going to separate it from recent

972
00:26:09,690 --> 00:26:09,700
we're going to separate it from recent
 

973
00:26:09,700 --> 00:26:13,769
we're going to separate it from recent
anthropogenic effects we all run up

974
00:26:13,769 --> 00:26:13,779
anthropogenic effects we all run up
 

975
00:26:13,779 --> 00:26:15,720
anthropogenic effects we all run up
against this all the time well how do

976
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:15,730
against this all the time well how do
 

977
00:26:15,730 --> 00:26:18,240
against this all the time well how do
you know the 20th century is unusual how

978
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:18,250
you know the 20th century is unusual how
 

979
00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:20,639
you know the 20th century is unusual how
do you know that the 1980s were unusual

980
00:26:20,639 --> 00:26:20,649
do you know that the 1980s were unusual
 

981
00:26:20,649 --> 00:26:23,279
do you know that the 1980s were unusual
the only way you know is to look back

982
00:26:23,279 --> 00:26:23,289
the only way you know is to look back
 

983
00:26:23,289 --> 00:26:25,980
the only way you know is to look back
through time and use that history as a

984
00:26:25,980 --> 00:26:25,990
through time and use that history as a
 

985
00:26:25,990 --> 00:26:26,549
through time and use that history as a
measure

986
00:26:26,549 --> 00:26:26,559
measure
 

987
00:26:26,559 --> 00:26:32,220
measure
stick I want to move now from kal kya

988
00:26:32,220 --> 00:26:32,230
stick I want to move now from kal kya
 

989
00:26:32,230 --> 00:26:36,060
stick I want to move now from kal kya
cross the Pacific Basin to the Tibetan

990
00:26:36,060 --> 00:26:36,070
cross the Pacific Basin to the Tibetan
 

991
00:26:36,070 --> 00:26:38,519
cross the Pacific Basin to the Tibetan
Plateau I would just point out this is a

992
00:26:38,519 --> 00:26:38,529
Plateau I would just point out this is a
 

993
00:26:38,529 --> 00:26:41,399
Plateau I would just point out this is a
NASA image taken I think this is

994
00:26:41,399 --> 00:26:41,409
NASA image taken I think this is
 

995
00:26:41,409 --> 00:26:44,549
NASA image taken I think this is
November of 82 and you see here the

996
00:26:44,549 --> 00:26:44,559
November of 82 and you see here the
 

997
00:26:44,559 --> 00:26:51,720
November of 82 and you see here the
Pacific warm pool in Asia the dominant

998
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:51,730
Pacific warm pool in Asia the dominant
 

999
00:26:51,730 --> 00:26:53,999
Pacific warm pool in Asia the dominant
climate system is the monsoonal

1000
00:26:53,999 --> 00:26:54,009
climate system is the monsoonal
 

1001
00:26:54,009 --> 00:26:57,629
climate system is the monsoonal
circulation system and the monsoonal

1002
00:26:57,629 --> 00:26:57,639
circulation system and the monsoonal
 

1003
00:26:57,639 --> 00:27:00,029
circulation system and the monsoonal
circulation system is driven primarily

1004
00:27:00,029 --> 00:27:00,039
circulation system is driven primarily
 

1005
00:27:00,039 --> 00:27:03,239
circulation system is driven primarily
by the intense heating of the Tibetan

1006
00:27:03,239 --> 00:27:03,249
by the intense heating of the Tibetan
 

1007
00:27:03,249 --> 00:27:06,960
by the intense heating of the Tibetan
Plateau the Tibetan Plateau is the most

1008
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:06,970
Plateau the Tibetan Plateau is the most
 

1009
00:27:06,970 --> 00:27:10,080
Plateau the Tibetan Plateau is the most
outstanding feature on the earth it has

1010
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:10,090
outstanding feature on the earth it has
 

1011
00:27:10,090 --> 00:27:14,070
outstanding feature on the earth it has
an elevation of over 4,500 meters and it

1012
00:27:14,070 --> 00:27:14,080
an elevation of over 4,500 meters and it
 

1013
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,789
an elevation of over 4,500 meters and it
contains over 60,000 square kilometers

1014
00:27:17,789 --> 00:27:17,799
contains over 60,000 square kilometers
 

1015
00:27:17,799 --> 00:27:23,850
contains over 60,000 square kilometers
of snow and ice this is the dune to ice

1016
00:27:23,850 --> 00:27:23,860
of snow and ice this is the dune to ice
 

1017
00:27:23,860 --> 00:27:26,639
of snow and ice this is the dune to ice
cap located in the north on the north

1018
00:27:26,639 --> 00:27:26,649
cap located in the north on the north
 

1019
00:27:26,649 --> 00:27:30,090
cap located in the north on the north
central part of the Tibetan Plateau for

1020
00:27:30,090 --> 00:27:30,100
central part of the Tibetan Plateau for
 

1021
00:27:30,100 --> 00:27:32,489
central part of the Tibetan Plateau for
scale this is a party with horses going

1022
00:27:32,489 --> 00:27:32,499
scale this is a party with horses going
 

1023
00:27:32,499 --> 00:27:37,580
scale this is a party with horses going
to the summit the dune to ice cap if

1024
00:27:37,580 --> 00:27:37,590
to the summit the dune to ice cap if
 

1025
00:27:37,590 --> 00:27:40,529
to the summit the dune to ice cap if
epitomizes what we call an ideal ice cap

1026
00:27:40,529 --> 00:27:40,539
epitomizes what we call an ideal ice cap
 

1027
00:27:40,539 --> 00:27:44,249
epitomizes what we call an ideal ice cap
shown here in a schematic and what we

1028
00:27:44,249 --> 00:27:44,259
shown here in a schematic and what we
 

1029
00:27:44,259 --> 00:27:46,259
shown here in a schematic and what we
look for in these drilling projects are

1030
00:27:46,259 --> 00:27:46,269
look for in these drilling projects are
 

1031
00:27:46,269 --> 00:27:49,590
look for in these drilling projects are
dome shaped ice masses with relatively

1032
00:27:49,590 --> 00:27:49,600
dome shaped ice masses with relatively
 

1033
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:54,710
dome shaped ice masses with relatively
flat basil bedrock so that the flow

1034
00:27:54,710 --> 00:27:54,720
flat basil bedrock so that the flow
 

1035
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:59,549
flat basil bedrock so that the flow
regime is fairly simple but for any ice

1036
00:27:59,549 --> 00:27:59,559
regime is fairly simple but for any ice
 

1037
00:27:59,559 --> 00:28:02,549
regime is fairly simple but for any ice
sheet ice cap there are three things

1038
00:28:02,549 --> 00:28:02,559
sheet ice cap there are three things
 

1039
00:28:02,559 --> 00:28:04,619
sheet ice cap there are three things
that determine the length of the record

1040
00:28:04,619 --> 00:28:04,629
that determine the length of the record
 

1041
00:28:04,629 --> 00:28:07,169
that determine the length of the record
that you will get the first is the

1042
00:28:07,169 --> 00:28:07,179
that you will get the first is the
 

1043
00:28:07,179 --> 00:28:10,470
that you will get the first is the
amount of accumulation that falls the

1044
00:28:10,470 --> 00:28:10,480
amount of accumulation that falls the
 

1045
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,279
amount of accumulation that falls the
second is how thick is the ice and the

1046
00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:14,289
second is how thick is the ice and the
 

1047
00:28:14,289 --> 00:28:16,919
second is how thick is the ice and the
third is whether that ice is frozen to

1048
00:28:16,919 --> 00:28:16,929
third is whether that ice is frozen to
 

1049
00:28:16,929 --> 00:28:19,649
third is whether that ice is frozen to
the bedrock because of course if it's

1050
00:28:19,649 --> 00:28:19,659
the bedrock because of course if it's
 

1051
00:28:19,659 --> 00:28:22,049
the bedrock because of course if it's
not frozen to the bedrock you're losing

1052
00:28:22,049 --> 00:28:22,059
not frozen to the bedrock you're losing
 

1053
00:28:22,059 --> 00:28:27,119
not frozen to the bedrock you're losing
your record from below in theory weren't

1054
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:27,129
your record from below in theory weren't
 

1055
00:28:27,129 --> 00:28:30,299
your record from below in theory weren't
your ice cap frozen to the bedrock and

1056
00:28:30,299 --> 00:28:30,309
your ice cap frozen to the bedrock and
 

1057
00:28:30,309 --> 00:28:34,470
your ice cap frozen to the bedrock and
had it been so throughout time the first

1058
00:28:34,470 --> 00:28:34,480
had it been so throughout time the first
 

1059
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,009
had it been so throughout time the first
snow that fell in that region

1060
00:28:37,009 --> 00:28:37,019
snow that fell in that region
 

1061
00:28:37,019 --> 00:28:39,780
snow that fell in that region
theoretically should still be there

1062
00:28:39,780 --> 00:28:39,790
theoretically should still be there
 

1063
00:28:39,790 --> 00:28:42,780
theoretically should still be there
we know however that it would be thinned

1064
00:28:42,780 --> 00:28:42,790
we know however that it would be thinned
 

1065
00:28:42,790 --> 00:28:45,820
we know however that it would be thinned
infant essa melis mall and could not be

1066
00:28:45,820 --> 00:28:45,830
infant essa melis mall and could not be
 

1067
00:28:45,830 --> 00:28:48,880
infant essa melis mall and could not be
discernible but the idea is you want to

1068
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:48,890
discernible but the idea is you want to
 

1069
00:28:48,890 --> 00:28:55,630
discernible but the idea is you want to
look for ice caps frozen to the bed the

1070
00:28:55,630 --> 00:28:55,640
look for ice caps frozen to the bed the
 

1071
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,350
look for ice caps frozen to the bed the
oxygen isotopic record that I've been

1072
00:28:59,350 --> 00:28:59,360
oxygen isotopic record that I've been
 

1073
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,110
oxygen isotopic record that I've been
talking about we use Delta o-18 as a

1074
00:29:02,110 --> 00:29:02,120
talking about we use Delta o-18 as a
 

1075
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,590
talking about we use Delta o-18 as a
proxy for temperature and I just want to

1076
00:29:05,590 --> 00:29:05,600
proxy for temperature and I just want to
 

1077
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,380
proxy for temperature and I just want to
show you because we have had this long

1078
00:29:08,380 --> 00:29:08,390
show you because we have had this long
 

1079
00:29:08,390 --> 00:29:11,140
show you because we have had this long
term collaborative project in China we

1080
00:29:11,140 --> 00:29:11,150
term collaborative project in China we
 

1081
00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:13,240
term collaborative project in China we
have the ability to have snowfall

1082
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:13,250
have the ability to have snowfall
 

1083
00:29:13,250 --> 00:29:16,419
have the ability to have snowfall
collected and the temperature measured

1084
00:29:16,419 --> 00:29:16,429
collected and the temperature measured
 

1085
00:29:16,429 --> 00:29:19,690
collected and the temperature measured
at the same time contemporaneously this

1086
00:29:19,690 --> 00:29:19,700
at the same time contemporaneously this
 

1087
00:29:19,700 --> 00:29:21,430
at the same time contemporaneously this
is something that is very difficult to

1088
00:29:21,430 --> 00:29:21,440
is something that is very difficult to
 

1089
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,310
is something that is very difficult to
do over the polar ice sheets essentially

1090
00:29:24,310 --> 00:29:24,320
do over the polar ice sheets essentially
 

1091
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,250
do over the polar ice sheets essentially
we have the Delta o-18 here and the

1092
00:29:27,250 --> 00:29:27,260
we have the Delta o-18 here and the
 

1093
00:29:27,260 --> 00:29:30,160
we have the Delta o-18 here and the
temperature we have more negative Delta

1094
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:30,170
temperature we have more negative Delta
 

1095
00:29:30,170 --> 00:29:34,330
temperature we have more negative Delta
when we have colder temperatures less

1096
00:29:34,330 --> 00:29:34,340
when we have colder temperatures less
 

1097
00:29:34,340 --> 00:29:38,910
when we have colder temperatures less
negative Delta and warmer temperatures

1098
00:29:38,910 --> 00:29:38,920
negative Delta and warmer temperatures
 

1099
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,919
negative Delta and warmer temperatures
the dune to ice cap contained a record

1100
00:29:41,919 --> 00:29:41,929
the dune to ice cap contained a record
 

1101
00:29:41,929 --> 00:29:44,860
the dune to ice cap contained a record
well over 40,000 years long this was a

1102
00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:44,870
well over 40,000 years long this was a
 

1103
00:29:44,870 --> 00:29:47,919
well over 40,000 years long this was a
surprise to us actually we had

1104
00:29:47,919 --> 00:29:47,929
surprise to us actually we had
 

1105
00:29:47,929 --> 00:29:50,560
surprise to us actually we had
anticipated a record maybe a five to ten

1106
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:50,570
anticipated a record maybe a five to ten
 

1107
00:29:50,570 --> 00:29:55,419
anticipated a record maybe a five to ten
thousand this is the this they do the

1108
00:29:55,419 --> 00:29:55,429
thousand this is the this they do the
 

1109
00:29:55,429 --> 00:29:58,710
thousand this is the this they do the
course represent the very first ice

1110
00:29:58,710 --> 00:29:58,720
course represent the very first ice
 

1111
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,080
course represent the very first ice
recovered outside the polar regions that

1112
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:02,090
recovered outside the polar regions that
 

1113
00:30:02,090 --> 00:30:05,230
recovered outside the polar regions that
contain ice deposited during the last

1114
00:30:05,230 --> 00:30:05,240
contain ice deposited during the last
 

1115
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:10,330
contain ice deposited during the last
glaciation over 12,000 years ago but

1116
00:30:10,330 --> 00:30:10,340
glaciation over 12,000 years ago but
 

1117
00:30:10,340 --> 00:30:12,610
glaciation over 12,000 years ago but
more importantly it provides that

1118
00:30:12,610 --> 00:30:12,620
more importantly it provides that
 

1119
00:30:12,620 --> 00:30:16,480
more importantly it provides that
backdrop or that measuring stick let me

1120
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:16,490
backdrop or that measuring stick let me
 

1121
00:30:16,490 --> 00:30:20,140
backdrop or that measuring stick let me
use this to illustrate this is a 12,000

1122
00:30:20,140 --> 00:30:20,150
use this to illustrate this is a 12,000
 

1123
00:30:20,150 --> 00:30:25,480
use this to illustrate this is a 12,000
year record of Delta o-18 more negative

1124
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:25,490
year record of Delta o-18 more negative
 

1125
00:30:25,490 --> 00:30:28,690
year record of Delta o-18 more negative
is cold and what we see here is the end

1126
00:30:28,690 --> 00:30:28,700
is cold and what we see here is the end
 

1127
00:30:28,700 --> 00:30:32,320
is cold and what we see here is the end
of the last major glaciation and the

1128
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:32,330
of the last major glaciation and the
 

1129
00:30:32,330 --> 00:30:35,770
of the last major glaciation and the
overlying Holocene the shaded area

1130
00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:35,780
overlying Holocene the shaded area
 

1131
00:30:35,780 --> 00:30:39,610
overlying Holocene the shaded area
represents the Delta o-18 average for

1132
00:30:39,610 --> 00:30:39,620
represents the Delta o-18 average for
 

1133
00:30:39,620 --> 00:30:45,490
represents the Delta o-18 average for
the last 50 years 1937 to 1987 the year

1134
00:30:45,490 --> 00:30:45,500
the last 50 years 1937 to 1987 the year
 

1135
00:30:45,500 --> 00:30:49,630
the last 50 years 1937 to 1987 the year
we drilled the core as you can see the

1136
00:30:49,630 --> 00:30:49,640
we drilled the core as you can see the
 

1137
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,540
we drilled the core as you can see the
last 50 years have been the warmest

1138
00:30:52,540 --> 00:30:52,550
last 50 years have been the warmest
 

1139
00:30:52,550 --> 00:30:57,940
last 50 years have been the warmest
in the last 12,000 now climate models

1140
00:30:57,940 --> 00:30:57,950
in the last 12,000 now climate models
 

1141
00:30:57,950 --> 00:31:01,600
in the last 12,000 now climate models
which we know are in precise and

1142
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:01,610
which we know are in precise and
 

1143
00:31:01,610 --> 00:31:04,180
which we know are in precise and
imperfect and dr. McElroy will mention

1144
00:31:04,180 --> 00:31:04,190
imperfect and dr. McElroy will mention
 

1145
00:31:04,190 --> 00:31:08,430
imperfect and dr. McElroy will mention
that I'm sure given all their warts

1146
00:31:08,430 --> 00:31:08,440
that I'm sure given all their warts
 

1147
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,700
that I'm sure given all their warts
still suggest that the interior hi

1148
00:31:12,700 --> 00:31:12,710
still suggest that the interior hi
 

1149
00:31:12,710 --> 00:31:16,330
still suggest that the interior hi
portions of large continents should be

1150
00:31:16,330 --> 00:31:16,340
portions of large continents should be
 

1151
00:31:16,340 --> 00:31:18,910
portions of large continents should be
one of the first places where we would

1152
00:31:18,910 --> 00:31:18,920
one of the first places where we would
 

1153
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,670
one of the first places where we would
see evidence of an anthropogenic ly

1154
00:31:21,670 --> 00:31:21,680
see evidence of an anthropogenic ly
 

1155
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,150
see evidence of an anthropogenic ly
induced warming and that's what we see

1156
00:31:25,150 --> 00:31:25,160
induced warming and that's what we see
 

1157
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,240
induced warming and that's what we see
here at over 5,000 meters on the Tibetan

1158
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:28,250
here at over 5,000 meters on the Tibetan
 

1159
00:31:28,250 --> 00:31:32,470
here at over 5,000 meters on the Tibetan
Plateau I just want to point out that

1160
00:31:32,470 --> 00:31:32,480
Plateau I just want to point out that
 

1161
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,690
Plateau I just want to point out that
the types of projects that we conduct

1162
00:31:34,690 --> 00:31:34,700
the types of projects that we conduct
 

1163
00:31:34,700 --> 00:31:38,110
the types of projects that we conduct
require international collaboration we

1164
00:31:38,110 --> 00:31:38,120
require international collaboration we
 

1165
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,270
require international collaboration we
could not do projects in China and South

1166
00:31:40,270 --> 00:31:40,280
could not do projects in China and South
 

1167
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,970
could not do projects in China and South
America without our international

1168
00:31:42,970 --> 00:31:42,980
America without our international
 

1169
00:31:42,980 --> 00:31:45,490
America without our international
partners I'd like to move now from the

1170
00:31:45,490 --> 00:31:45,500
partners I'd like to move now from the
 

1171
00:31:45,500 --> 00:31:48,730
partners I'd like to move now from the
dune to ice cap here to the Galia ice

1172
00:31:48,730 --> 00:31:48,740
dune to ice cap here to the Galia ice
 

1173
00:31:48,740 --> 00:31:53,590
dune to ice cap here to the Galia ice
cap in the Western Kunlun galia sits at

1174
00:31:53,590 --> 00:31:53,600
cap in the Western Kunlun galia sits at
 

1175
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,760
cap in the Western Kunlun galia sits at
sixty seven hundred metres that's over

1176
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:56,770
sixty seven hundred metres that's over
 

1177
00:31:56,770 --> 00:31:59,650
sixty seven hundred metres that's over
21,000 feet and you see it here

1178
00:31:59,650 --> 00:31:59,660
21,000 feet and you see it here
 

1179
00:31:59,660 --> 00:32:04,330
21,000 feet and you see it here
virtually in the clouds but it has

1180
00:32:04,330 --> 00:32:04,340
virtually in the clouds but it has
 

1181
00:32:04,340 --> 00:32:08,860
virtually in the clouds but it has
annual layering and this vertical margin

1182
00:32:08,860 --> 00:32:08,870
annual layering and this vertical margin
 

1183
00:32:08,870 --> 00:32:11,740
annual layering and this vertical margin
that you see tells us that it is frozen

1184
00:32:11,740 --> 00:32:11,750
that you see tells us that it is frozen
 

1185
00:32:11,750 --> 00:32:15,160
that you see tells us that it is frozen
to the bed this is the profile that one

1186
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:15,170
to the bed this is the profile that one
 

1187
00:32:15,170 --> 00:32:19,180
to the bed this is the profile that one
expects to see I on polar glaciers that

1188
00:32:19,180 --> 00:32:19,190
expects to see I on polar glaciers that
 

1189
00:32:19,190 --> 00:32:24,850
expects to see I on polar glaciers that
are frozen to the bed and this is just a

1190
00:32:24,850 --> 00:32:24,860
are frozen to the bed and this is just a
 

1191
00:32:24,860 --> 00:32:29,680
are frozen to the bed and this is just a
drill site of the drill camp and again

1192
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:29,690
drill site of the drill camp and again
 

1193
00:32:29,690 --> 00:32:32,620
drill site of the drill camp and again
in this ice cap these are the annual

1194
00:32:32,620 --> 00:32:32,630
in this ice cap these are the annual
 

1195
00:32:32,630 --> 00:32:35,380
in this ice cap these are the annual
layers that have allowed us to count

1196
00:32:35,380 --> 00:32:35,390
layers that have allowed us to count
 

1197
00:32:35,390 --> 00:32:38,800
layers that have allowed us to count
back what to point out that at a hundred

1198
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:38,810
back what to point out that at a hundred
 

1199
00:32:38,810 --> 00:32:41,110
back what to point out that at a hundred
and thirty five meters we are still

1200
00:32:41,110 --> 00:32:41,120
and thirty five meters we are still
 

1201
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,920
and thirty five meters we are still
counting annual layers we encountered

1202
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:44,930
counting annual layers we encountered
 

1203
00:32:44,930 --> 00:32:48,990
counting annual layers we encountered
late glacial stage ice at a hundred and

1204
00:32:48,990 --> 00:32:49,000
late glacial stage ice at a hundred and
 

1205
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,630
late glacial stage ice at a hundred and
fifty three meters on this ice cap that

1206
00:32:52,630 --> 00:32:52,640
fifty three meters on this ice cap that
 

1207
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,410
fifty three meters on this ice cap that
should be the next slide the ice the ice

1208
00:32:56,410 --> 00:32:56,420
should be the next slide the ice the ice
 

1209
00:32:56,420 --> 00:32:58,870
should be the next slide the ice the ice
caps three hundred and seven meters

1210
00:32:58,870 --> 00:32:58,880
caps three hundred and seven meters
 

1211
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,500
caps three hundred and seven meters
thick we essentially layer counted to

1212
00:33:02,500 --> 00:33:02,510
thick we essentially layer counted to
 

1213
00:33:02,510 --> 00:33:04,820
thick we essentially layer counted to
right here

1214
00:33:04,820 --> 00:33:04,830
right here
 

1215
00:33:04,830 --> 00:33:06,950
right here
we had estimated that we should

1216
00:33:06,950 --> 00:33:06,960
we had estimated that we should
 

1217
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,580
we had estimated that we should
encounter late glacial stage that's

1218
00:33:09,580 --> 00:33:09,590
encounter late glacial stage that's
 

1219
00:33:09,590 --> 00:33:13,159
encounter late glacial stage that's
12,000 years or older ice at a hundred

1220
00:33:13,159 --> 00:33:13,169
12,000 years or older ice at a hundred
 

1221
00:33:13,169 --> 00:33:16,100
12,000 years or older ice at a hundred
and fifty five meters we encountered it

1222
00:33:16,100 --> 00:33:16,110
and fifty five meters we encountered it
 

1223
00:33:16,110 --> 00:33:21,019
and fifty five meters we encountered it
at 153 these analyses are still under

1224
00:33:21,019 --> 00:33:21,029
at 153 these analyses are still under
 

1225
00:33:21,029 --> 00:33:23,870
at 153 these analyses are still under
we're still making the analyses we're

1226
00:33:23,870 --> 00:33:23,880
we're still making the analyses we're
 

1227
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,450
we're still making the analyses we're
halfway through but what I want to point

1228
00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:26,460
halfway through but what I want to point
 

1229
00:33:26,460 --> 00:33:30,080
halfway through but what I want to point
out is we have late glacial stage ice

1230
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:30,090
out is we have late glacial stage ice
 

1231
00:33:30,090 --> 00:33:32,720
out is we have late glacial stage ice
this is the second time we've found late

1232
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:32,730
this is the second time we've found late
 

1233
00:33:32,730 --> 00:33:35,230
this is the second time we've found late
glacial stage ice on the Tibetan Plateau

1234
00:33:35,230 --> 00:33:35,240
glacial stage ice on the Tibetan Plateau
 

1235
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,629
glacial stage ice on the Tibetan Plateau
but we still have half the thickness of

1236
00:33:38,629 --> 00:33:38,639
but we still have half the thickness of
 

1237
00:33:38,639 --> 00:33:41,480
but we still have half the thickness of
that ice cap get to analyze so we

1238
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:41,490
that ice cap get to analyze so we
 

1239
00:33:41,490 --> 00:33:43,610
that ice cap get to analyze so we
anticipate that we're going to have a

1240
00:33:43,610 --> 00:33:43,620
anticipate that we're going to have a
 

1241
00:33:43,620 --> 00:33:48,110
anticipate that we're going to have a
record of multiple glaciations when we

1242
00:33:48,110 --> 00:33:48,120
record of multiple glaciations when we
 

1243
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,299
record of multiple glaciations when we
begin to put together a global array of

1244
00:33:50,299 --> 00:33:50,309
begin to put together a global array of
 

1245
00:33:50,309 --> 00:33:52,909
begin to put together a global array of
records we begin to see large-scale

1246
00:33:52,909 --> 00:33:52,919
records we begin to see large-scale
 

1247
00:33:52,919 --> 00:33:56,860
records we begin to see large-scale
teleconnections this is the accumulation

1248
00:33:56,860 --> 00:33:56,870
teleconnections this is the accumulation
 

1249
00:33:56,870 --> 00:34:01,720
teleconnections this is the accumulation
from the Galia core the last 1000 years

1250
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:01,730
from the Galia core the last 1000 years
 

1251
00:34:01,730 --> 00:34:05,269
from the Galia core the last 1000 years
compared to the cal kaya core the

1252
00:34:05,269 --> 00:34:05,279
compared to the cal kaya core the
 

1253
00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:09,970
compared to the cal kaya core the
similarity is is striking hi

1254
00:34:09,970 --> 00:34:09,980
similarity is is striking hi
 

1255
00:34:09,980 --> 00:34:13,909
similarity is is striking hi
accumulation low accumulation when you

1256
00:34:13,909 --> 00:34:13,919
accumulation low accumulation when you
 

1257
00:34:13,919 --> 00:34:17,540
accumulation low accumulation when you
consider that the Galia sits on the far

1258
00:34:17,540 --> 00:34:17,550
consider that the Galia sits on the far
 

1259
00:34:17,550 --> 00:34:19,940
consider that the Galia sits on the far
western edge of the Tibetan Plateau at

1260
00:34:19,940 --> 00:34:19,950
western edge of the Tibetan Plateau at
 

1261
00:34:19,950 --> 00:34:25,220
western edge of the Tibetan Plateau at
35 degrees north kal kya sits 20,000

1262
00:34:25,220 --> 00:34:25,230
35 degrees north kal kya sits 20,000
 

1263
00:34:25,230 --> 00:34:27,829
35 degrees north kal kya sits 20,000
kilometers away across the Pacific Basin

1264
00:34:27,829 --> 00:34:27,839
kilometers away across the Pacific Basin
 

1265
00:34:27,839 --> 00:34:33,770
kilometers away across the Pacific Basin
at 14 degrees south in the Andes we know

1266
00:34:33,770 --> 00:34:33,780
at 14 degrees south in the Andes we know
 

1267
00:34:33,780 --> 00:34:37,159
at 14 degrees south in the Andes we know
from current day observations that the

1268
00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:37,169
from current day observations that the
 

1269
00:34:37,169 --> 00:34:39,649
from current day observations that the
El Nino Southern Oscillation dominates

1270
00:34:39,649 --> 00:34:39,659
El Nino Southern Oscillation dominates
 

1271
00:34:39,659 --> 00:34:42,859
El Nino Southern Oscillation dominates
the Pacific Basin and we also know that

1272
00:34:42,859 --> 00:34:42,869
the Pacific Basin and we also know that
 

1273
00:34:42,869 --> 00:34:46,520
the Pacific Basin and we also know that
its variability is tied intimately to

1274
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:46,530
its variability is tied intimately to
 

1275
00:34:46,530 --> 00:34:50,599
its variability is tied intimately to
the monsoonal circulation system and the

1276
00:34:50,599 --> 00:34:50,609
the monsoonal circulation system and the
 

1277
00:34:50,609 --> 00:34:54,829
the monsoonal circulation system and the
failure of the monsoons we've proposed

1278
00:34:54,829 --> 00:34:54,839
failure of the monsoons we've proposed
 

1279
00:34:54,839 --> 00:34:59,109
failure of the monsoons we've proposed
that the earth actually has what we call

1280
00:34:59,109 --> 00:34:59,119
that the earth actually has what we call
 

1281
00:34:59,119 --> 00:35:03,740
that the earth actually has what we call
excuse me mega El Ninos periods of time

1282
00:35:03,740 --> 00:35:03,750
excuse me mega El Ninos periods of time
 

1283
00:35:03,750 --> 00:35:05,960
excuse me mega El Ninos periods of time
for hundreds of years in which the earth

1284
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:05,970
for hundreds of years in which the earth
 

1285
00:35:05,970 --> 00:35:10,400
for hundreds of years in which the earth
operates in an El Nino like state we

1286
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:10,410
operates in an El Nino like state we
 

1287
00:35:10,410 --> 00:35:13,280
operates in an El Nino like state we
know El Ninos today last 1 or 2 years

1288
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:13,290
know El Ninos today last 1 or 2 years
 

1289
00:35:13,290 --> 00:35:16,260
know El Ninos today last 1 or 2 years
although in the last decade

1290
00:35:16,260 --> 00:35:16,270
although in the last decade
 

1291
00:35:16,270 --> 00:35:18,930
although in the last decade
you haven't it hasn't operated quite the

1292
00:35:18,930 --> 00:35:18,940
you haven't it hasn't operated quite the
 

1293
00:35:18,940 --> 00:35:22,020
you haven't it hasn't operated quite the
way we thought it should the point is

1294
00:35:22,020 --> 00:35:22,030
way we thought it should the point is
 

1295
00:35:22,030 --> 00:35:24,000
way we thought it should the point is
what you begin to collect these records

1296
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:24,010
what you begin to collect these records
 

1297
00:35:24,010 --> 00:35:26,150
what you begin to collect these records
you can begin to put these connections

1298
00:35:26,150 --> 00:35:26,160
you can begin to put these connections
 

1299
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:30,660
you can begin to put these connections
together this is again a busy slide this

1300
00:35:30,660 --> 00:35:30,670
together this is again a busy slide this
 

1301
00:35:30,670 --> 00:35:33,690
together this is again a busy slide this
shows the 10-year averages for the last

1302
00:35:33,690 --> 00:35:33,700
shows the 10-year averages for the last
 

1303
00:35:33,700 --> 00:35:36,660
shows the 10-year averages for the last
1000 years from nine different ice core

1304
00:35:36,660 --> 00:35:36,670
1000 years from nine different ice core
 

1305
00:35:36,670 --> 00:35:39,510
1000 years from nine different ice core
sites all the way from South Pole

1306
00:35:39,510 --> 00:35:39,520
sites all the way from South Pole
 

1307
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,390
sites all the way from South Pole
Station to central Greenland and camp

1308
00:35:42,390 --> 00:35:42,400
Station to central Greenland and camp
 

1309
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:47,070
Station to central Greenland and camp
century maybe those people who would

1310
00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:47,080
century maybe those people who would
 

1311
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,110
century maybe those people who would
like to believe that the little ice age

1312
00:35:49,110 --> 00:35:49,120
like to believe that the little ice age
 

1313
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,240
like to believe that the little ice age
is a global phenomenon might be

1314
00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:51,250
is a global phenomenon might be
 

1315
00:35:51,250 --> 00:35:54,270
is a global phenomenon might be
disappointed because what we see is that

1316
00:35:54,270 --> 00:35:54,280
disappointed because what we see is that
 

1317
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,480
disappointed because what we see is that
in Peru the little ice age was a very

1318
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:57,490
in Peru the little ice age was a very
 

1319
00:35:57,490 --> 00:36:00,240
in Peru the little ice age was a very
dominant feature it's recorded in the

1320
00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:00,250
dominant feature it's recorded in the
 

1321
00:36:00,250 --> 00:36:03,120
dominant feature it's recorded in the
Greenland course it's also recorded at

1322
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:03,130
Greenland course it's also recorded at
 

1323
00:36:03,130 --> 00:36:05,850
Greenland course it's also recorded at
South Pole Station but we do not have

1324
00:36:05,850 --> 00:36:05,860
South Pole Station but we do not have
 

1325
00:36:05,860 --> 00:36:09,140
South Pole Station but we do not have
evidence of the Little Ice Age in China

1326
00:36:09,140 --> 00:36:09,150
evidence of the Little Ice Age in China
 

1327
00:36:09,150 --> 00:36:12,810
evidence of the Little Ice Age in China
if you were to take 11 meteorological

1328
00:36:12,810 --> 00:36:12,820
if you were to take 11 meteorological
 

1329
00:36:12,820 --> 00:36:15,570
if you were to take 11 meteorological
stations chosen at random but to give a

1330
00:36:15,570 --> 00:36:15,580
stations chosen at random but to give a
 

1331
00:36:15,580 --> 00:36:19,770
stations chosen at random but to give a
global coverage I suggest that you would

1332
00:36:19,770 --> 00:36:19,780
global coverage I suggest that you would
 

1333
00:36:19,780 --> 00:36:23,910
global coverage I suggest that you would
not find coherences any stronger than

1334
00:36:23,910 --> 00:36:23,920
not find coherences any stronger than
 

1335
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,160
not find coherences any stronger than
these it is very difficult to

1336
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:26,170
these it is very difficult to
 

1337
00:36:26,170 --> 00:36:30,810
these it is very difficult to
reconstruct climate from point sites but

1338
00:36:30,810 --> 00:36:30,820
reconstruct climate from point sites but
 

1339
00:36:30,820 --> 00:36:33,240
reconstruct climate from point sites but
that's what we have to do the one

1340
00:36:33,240 --> 00:36:33,250
that's what we have to do the one
 

1341
00:36:33,250 --> 00:36:35,070
that's what we have to do the one
feature that comes through very clearly

1342
00:36:35,070 --> 00:36:35,080
feature that comes through very clearly
 

1343
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,250
feature that comes through very clearly
in this record is the warming of the

1344
00:36:38,250 --> 00:36:38,260
in this record is the warming of the
 

1345
00:36:38,260 --> 00:36:46,500
in this record is the warming of the
last century and a half when we go

1346
00:36:46,500 --> 00:36:46,510
last century and a half when we go
 

1347
00:36:46,510 --> 00:36:49,560
last century and a half when we go
places in drill new ice cores we find

1348
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:49,570
places in drill new ice cores we find
 

1349
00:36:49,570 --> 00:36:52,560
places in drill new ice cores we find
that they often challenged our existing

1350
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:52,570
that they often challenged our existing
 

1351
00:36:52,570 --> 00:36:56,360
that they often challenged our existing
paradigms the way we think about things

1352
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:56,370
paradigms the way we think about things
 

1353
00:36:56,370 --> 00:36:59,670
paradigms the way we think about things
want to return now to Peru but go to

1354
00:36:59,670 --> 00:36:59,680
want to return now to Peru but go to
 

1355
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:05,070
want to return now to Peru but go to
northern Peru to a site crossed Quran we

1356
00:37:05,070 --> 00:37:05,080
northern Peru to a site crossed Quran we
 

1357
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,260
northern Peru to a site crossed Quran we
drilled here in this call at a little

1358
00:37:07,260 --> 00:37:07,270
drilled here in this call at a little
 

1359
00:37:07,270 --> 00:37:12,090
drilled here in this call at a little
over 6,000 meters the access was

1360
00:37:12,090 --> 00:37:12,100
over 6,000 meters the access was
 

1361
00:37:12,100 --> 00:37:16,260
over 6,000 meters the access was
difficult this is the drill cap in the

1362
00:37:16,260 --> 00:37:16,270
difficult this is the drill cap in the
 

1363
00:37:16,270 --> 00:37:19,500
difficult this is the drill cap in the
call and this was the second use of

1364
00:37:19,500 --> 00:37:19,510
call and this was the second use of
 

1365
00:37:19,510 --> 00:37:25,320
call and this was the second use of
solar power for ice core drilling to

1366
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:25,330
solar power for ice core drilling to
 

1367
00:37:25,330 --> 00:37:28,320
solar power for ice core drilling to
date the core we again count annual

1368
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:28,330
date the core we again count annual
 

1369
00:37:28,330 --> 00:37:30,420
date the core we again count annual
layers I'm showing you just

1370
00:37:30,420 --> 00:37:30,430
layers I'm showing you just
 

1371
00:37:30,430 --> 00:37:33,750
layers I'm showing you just
four sections from the core each section

1372
00:37:33,750 --> 00:37:33,760
four sections from the core each section
 

1373
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,900
four sections from the core each section
with the same three parameters used for

1374
00:37:36,900 --> 00:37:36,910
with the same three parameters used for
 

1375
00:37:36,910 --> 00:37:41,210
with the same three parameters used for
dating Dust oxygen isotopic ratios and

1376
00:37:41,210 --> 00:37:41,220
dating Dust oxygen isotopic ratios and
 

1377
00:37:41,220 --> 00:37:46,349
dating Dust oxygen isotopic ratios and
nitrate concentrations in green this

1378
00:37:46,349 --> 00:37:46,359
nitrate concentrations in green this
 

1379
00:37:46,359 --> 00:37:49,589
nitrate concentrations in green this
diagram shows the layer thinning with

1380
00:37:49,589 --> 00:37:49,599
diagram shows the layer thinning with
 

1381
00:37:49,599 --> 00:37:53,370
diagram shows the layer thinning with
depth and we we thin essentially from a

1382
00:37:53,370 --> 00:37:53,380
depth and we we thin essentially from a
 

1383
00:37:53,380 --> 00:37:55,410
depth and we we thin essentially from a
layer thickness of about a metre and a

1384
00:37:55,410 --> 00:37:55,420
layer thickness of about a metre and a
 

1385
00:37:55,420 --> 00:38:00,750
layer thickness of about a metre and a
half of water equivalent very quickly we

1386
00:38:00,750 --> 00:38:00,760
half of water equivalent very quickly we
 

1387
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:06,089
half of water equivalent very quickly we
thin to centimeters scale when we have

1388
00:38:06,089 --> 00:38:06,099
thin to centimeters scale when we have
 

1389
00:38:06,099 --> 00:38:09,120
thin to centimeters scale when we have
this degree of thinning we can generally

1390
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:09,130
this degree of thinning we can generally
 

1391
00:38:09,130 --> 00:38:11,609
this degree of thinning we can generally
and if we're frozen to the bed we can

1392
00:38:11,609 --> 00:38:11,619
and if we're frozen to the bed we can
 

1393
00:38:11,619 --> 00:38:14,069
and if we're frozen to the bed we can
generally count on having a very long

1394
00:38:14,069 --> 00:38:14,079
generally count on having a very long
 

1395
00:38:14,079 --> 00:38:18,720
generally count on having a very long
record and in fact we extracted from Los

1396
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:18,730
record and in fact we extracted from Los
 

1397
00:38:18,730 --> 00:38:22,920
record and in fact we extracted from Los
Quran just in 1993 the first glacial

1398
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:22,930
Quran just in 1993 the first glacial
 

1399
00:38:22,930 --> 00:38:26,940
Quran just in 1993 the first glacial
stage ice from the tropics I'm showing

1400
00:38:26,940 --> 00:38:26,950
stage ice from the tropics I'm showing
 

1401
00:38:26,950 --> 00:38:29,700
stage ice from the tropics I'm showing
you now just the lower portion of the

1402
00:38:29,700 --> 00:38:29,710
you now just the lower portion of the
 

1403
00:38:29,710 --> 00:38:33,950
you now just the lower portion of the
Huascar encore and we see the Delta o-18

1404
00:38:33,950 --> 00:38:33,960
Huascar encore and we see the Delta o-18
 

1405
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:40,410
Huascar encore and we see the Delta o-18
very negative this shift from maximum or

1406
00:38:40,410 --> 00:38:40,420
very negative this shift from maximum or
 

1407
00:38:40,420 --> 00:38:44,370
very negative this shift from maximum or
most depleted to most enriched is eight

1408
00:38:44,370 --> 00:38:44,380
most depleted to most enriched is eight
 

1409
00:38:44,380 --> 00:38:48,990
most depleted to most enriched is eight
parts per mil also a substantial

1410
00:38:48,990 --> 00:38:49,000
parts per mil also a substantial
 

1411
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,790
parts per mil also a substantial
reduction in my trait concentration

1412
00:38:52,790 --> 00:38:52,800
reduction in my trait concentration
 

1413
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:57,110
reduction in my trait concentration
of two or three and in an increase of

1414
00:38:57,110 --> 00:38:57,120
of two or three and in an increase of
 

1415
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:03,800
of two or three and in an increase of
two hundred fold indust the increase in

1416
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:03,810
two hundred fold indust the increase in
 

1417
00:39:03,810 --> 00:39:08,120
two hundred fold indust the increase in
dust the decrease in nitrate is very

1418
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:08,130
dust the decrease in nitrate is very
 

1419
00:39:08,130 --> 00:39:11,870
dust the decrease in nitrate is very
consistent with the climate that has

1420
00:39:11,870 --> 00:39:11,880
consistent with the climate that has
 

1421
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:13,820
consistent with the climate that has
been reconstructed the late glacial

1422
00:39:13,820 --> 00:39:13,830
been reconstructed the late glacial
 

1423
00:39:13,830 --> 00:39:17,630
been reconstructed the late glacial
stage climate shown on your right based

1424
00:39:17,630 --> 00:39:17,640
stage climate shown on your right based
 

1425
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,570
stage climate shown on your right based
upon a variety of glacial geologic

1426
00:39:20,570 --> 00:39:20,580
upon a variety of glacial geologic
 

1427
00:39:20,580 --> 00:39:23,200
upon a variety of glacial geologic
evidence and palin illogic evidence

1428
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:23,210
evidence and palin illogic evidence
 

1429
00:39:23,210 --> 00:39:25,670
evidence and palin illogic evidence
essentially at the height of the last

1430
00:39:25,670 --> 00:39:25,680
essentially at the height of the last
 

1431
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,110
essentially at the height of the last
glacial maximum deserts were twenty-five

1432
00:39:29,110 --> 00:39:29,120
glacial maximum deserts were twenty-five
 

1433
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:33,320
glacial maximum deserts were twenty-five
twenty-five percent more extensive the

1434
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:33,330
twenty-five percent more extensive the
 

1435
00:39:33,330 --> 00:39:36,350
twenty-five percent more extensive the
area was much drier the tropical

1436
00:39:36,350 --> 00:39:36,360
area was much drier the tropical
 

1437
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,140
area was much drier the tropical
rainforest which we see here in dark

1438
00:39:39,140 --> 00:39:39,150
rainforest which we see here in dark
 

1439
00:39:39,150 --> 00:39:42,290
rainforest which we see here in dark
green was much less extensive much more

1440
00:39:42,290 --> 00:39:42,300
green was much less extensive much more
 

1441
00:39:42,300 --> 00:39:47,150
green was much less extensive much more
Savannah and the Amazon but the Amazon

1442
00:39:47,150 --> 00:39:47,160
Savannah and the Amazon but the Amazon
 

1443
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,530
Savannah and the Amazon but the Amazon
River ran in a canyon a deep in size

1444
00:39:50,530 --> 00:39:50,540
River ran in a canyon a deep in size
 

1445
00:39:50,540 --> 00:39:54,770
River ran in a canyon a deep in size
Canyon that drained the moisture out of

1446
00:39:54,770 --> 00:39:54,780
Canyon that drained the moisture out of
 

1447
00:39:54,780 --> 00:40:00,590
Canyon that drained the moisture out of
this basin very effectively so the

1448
00:40:00,590 --> 00:40:00,600
this basin very effectively so the
 

1449
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,170
this basin very effectively so the
decrease in nitrate we think is

1450
00:40:03,170 --> 00:40:03,180
decrease in nitrate we think is
 

1451
00:40:03,180 --> 00:40:05,150
decrease in nitrate we think is
associated with the reduction in

1452
00:40:05,150 --> 00:40:05,160
associated with the reduction in
 

1453
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,420
associated with the reduction in
vegetation the increase in dust is

1454
00:40:08,420 --> 00:40:08,430
vegetation the increase in dust is
 

1455
00:40:08,430 --> 00:40:12,140
vegetation the increase in dust is
associated with the increased frequency

1456
00:40:12,140 --> 00:40:12,150
associated with the increased frequency
 

1457
00:40:12,150 --> 00:40:16,940
associated with the increased frequency
of eolian features now let's compare the

1458
00:40:16,940 --> 00:40:16,950
of eolian features now let's compare the
 

1459
00:40:16,950 --> 00:40:21,770
of eolian features now let's compare the
hot the cross quran record to similar

1460
00:40:21,770 --> 00:40:21,780
hot the cross quran record to similar
 

1461
00:40:21,780 --> 00:40:25,070
hot the cross quran record to similar
records from both polar regions on the

1462
00:40:25,070 --> 00:40:25,080
records from both polar regions on the
 

1463
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,380
records from both polar regions on the
extreme right we have the die three

1464
00:40:27,380 --> 00:40:27,390
extreme right we have the die three
 

1465
00:40:27,390 --> 00:40:31,700
extreme right we have the die three
record this is dust late glacial stage

1466
00:40:31,700 --> 00:40:31,710
record this is dust late glacial stage
 

1467
00:40:31,710 --> 00:40:36,200
record this is dust late glacial stage
hi dust depleted or more negative Delta

1468
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:36,210
hi dust depleted or more negative Delta
 

1469
00:40:36,210 --> 00:40:40,160
hi dust depleted or more negative Delta
o-18 this is don't see this is in

1470
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:40,170
o-18 this is don't see this is in
 

1471
00:40:40,170 --> 00:40:43,910
o-18 this is don't see this is in
Central East Antarctica again hi dust

1472
00:40:43,910 --> 00:40:43,920
Central East Antarctica again hi dust
 

1473
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,700
Central East Antarctica again hi dust
for the Glacial stage and much more

1474
00:40:46,700 --> 00:40:46,710
for the Glacial stage and much more
 

1475
00:40:46,710 --> 00:40:49,910
for the Glacial stage and much more
negative Delta o-18 and then on your on

1476
00:40:49,910 --> 00:40:49,920
negative Delta o-18 and then on your on
 

1477
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:54,950
negative Delta o-18 and then on your on
your left hi Dustin huascaran and more

1478
00:40:54,950 --> 00:40:54,960
your left hi Dustin huascaran and more
 

1479
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,010
your left hi Dustin huascaran and more
negative Delta o-18 in fact the Delta

1480
00:40:58,010 --> 00:40:58,020
negative Delta o-18 in fact the Delta
 

1481
00:40:58,020 --> 00:41:00,640
negative Delta o-18 in fact the Delta
shift from late glacial to holocene

1482
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:00,650
shift from late glacial to holocene
 

1483
00:41:00,650 --> 00:41:03,380
shift from late glacial to holocene
conditions is eight parts per million

1484
00:41:03,380 --> 00:41:03,390
conditions is eight parts per million
 

1485
00:41:03,390 --> 00:41:06,080
conditions is eight parts per million
huascaran compared to

1486
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:06,090
huascaran compared to
 

1487
00:41:06,090 --> 00:41:10,910
huascaran compared to
six parts per million doses per mil @

1488
00:41:10,910 --> 00:41:10,920
six parts per million doses per mil @
 

1489
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:15,440
six parts per million doses per mil @
die three just point out briefly also

1490
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:15,450
die three just point out briefly also
 

1491
00:41:15,450 --> 00:41:18,950
die three just point out briefly also
evidence for the Younger Dryas during

1492
00:41:18,950 --> 00:41:18,960
evidence for the Younger Dryas during
 

1493
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,430
evidence for the Younger Dryas during
the deglaciation sequence seen best here

1494
00:41:22,430 --> 00:41:22,440
the deglaciation sequence seen best here
 

1495
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:26,060
the deglaciation sequence seen best here
in Greenland there was as there the

1496
00:41:26,060 --> 00:41:26,070
in Greenland there was as there the
 

1497
00:41:26,070 --> 00:41:29,810
in Greenland there was as there the
warming was interrupted by a return to

1498
00:41:29,810 --> 00:41:29,820
warming was interrupted by a return to
 

1499
00:41:29,820 --> 00:41:32,720
warming was interrupted by a return to
near full glacial conditions for a

1500
00:41:32,720 --> 00:41:32,730
near full glacial conditions for a
 

1501
00:41:32,730 --> 00:41:36,920
near full glacial conditions for a
matter of a thousand years or so and dr.

1502
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:36,930
matter of a thousand years or so and dr.
 

1503
00:41:36,930 --> 00:41:39,440
matter of a thousand years or so and dr.
McElroy will talk more about these type

1504
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:39,450
McElroy will talk more about these type
 

1505
00:41:39,450 --> 00:41:41,900
McElroy will talk more about these type
of rapid changes but I want to point out

1506
00:41:41,900 --> 00:41:41,910
of rapid changes but I want to point out
 

1507
00:41:41,910 --> 00:41:45,200
of rapid changes but I want to point out
that the Younger Dryas is also recorded

1508
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:45,210
that the Younger Dryas is also recorded
 

1509
00:41:45,210 --> 00:41:48,110
that the Younger Dryas is also recorded
on this ice cap at nine degrees cell

1510
00:41:48,110 --> 00:41:48,120
on this ice cap at nine degrees cell
 

1511
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,600
on this ice cap at nine degrees cell
this is what I mean about challenging

1512
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:50,610
this is what I mean about challenging
 

1513
00:41:50,610 --> 00:41:53,780
this is what I mean about challenging
the existing paradigm the existing

1514
00:41:53,780 --> 00:41:53,790
the existing paradigm the existing
 

1515
00:41:53,790 --> 00:41:56,300
the existing paradigm the existing
paradigm with regard to tropical climate

1516
00:41:56,300 --> 00:41:56,310
paradigm with regard to tropical climate
 

1517
00:41:56,310 --> 00:41:58,610
paradigm with regard to tropical climate
is that the tropics don't change much

1518
00:41:58,610 --> 00:41:58,620
is that the tropics don't change much
 

1519
00:41:58,620 --> 00:42:01,100
is that the tropics don't change much
and based on the climb a pre

1520
00:42:01,100 --> 00:42:01,110
and based on the climb a pre
 

1521
00:42:01,110 --> 00:42:04,910
and based on the climb a pre
constructions the thinking was that the

1522
00:42:04,910 --> 00:42:04,920
constructions the thinking was that the
 

1523
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,160
constructions the thinking was that the
tropics during the last glacial stage

1524
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:07,170
tropics during the last glacial stage
 

1525
00:42:07,170 --> 00:42:11,390
tropics during the last glacial stage
were not substantially colder this ice

1526
00:42:11,390 --> 00:42:11,400
were not substantially colder this ice
 

1527
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,910
were not substantially colder this ice
core record along with records that are

1528
00:42:13,910 --> 00:42:13,920
core record along with records that are
 

1529
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,190
core record along with records that are
now emerging from corals and from some

1530
00:42:16,190 --> 00:42:16,200
now emerging from corals and from some
 

1531
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,160
now emerging from corals and from some
other pollen cores in the basin

1532
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:18,170
other pollen cores in the basin
 

1533
00:42:18,170 --> 00:42:20,630
other pollen cores in the basin
challenge that and suggest that

1534
00:42:20,630 --> 00:42:20,640
challenge that and suggest that
 

1535
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:22,280
challenge that and suggest that
temperatures during the last glacial

1536
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:22,290
temperatures during the last glacial
 

1537
00:42:22,290 --> 00:42:25,790
temperatures during the last glacial
maximum were as much as possibly five

1538
00:42:25,790 --> 00:42:25,800
maximum were as much as possibly five
 

1539
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,300
maximum were as much as possibly five
degrees colder we have to remember that

1540
00:42:29,300 --> 00:42:29,310
degrees colder we have to remember that
 

1541
00:42:29,310 --> 00:42:31,130
degrees colder we have to remember that
the current climate models that are used

1542
00:42:31,130 --> 00:42:31,140
the current climate models that are used
 

1543
00:42:31,140 --> 00:42:35,300
the current climate models that are used
to make future projections have been

1544
00:42:35,300 --> 00:42:35,310
to make future projections have been
 

1545
00:42:35,310 --> 00:42:37,580
to make future projections have been
tested in terms of their validity

1546
00:42:37,580 --> 00:42:37,590
tested in terms of their validity
 

1547
00:42:37,590 --> 00:42:41,180
tested in terms of their validity
against their ability to reproduce known

1548
00:42:41,180 --> 00:42:41,190
against their ability to reproduce known
 

1549
00:42:41,190 --> 00:42:44,270
against their ability to reproduce known
conditions the problem is the known

1550
00:42:44,270 --> 00:42:44,280
conditions the problem is the known
 

1551
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,730
conditions the problem is the known
condition to which their feet were held

1552
00:42:46,730 --> 00:42:46,740
condition to which their feet were held
 

1553
00:42:46,740 --> 00:42:50,300
condition to which their feet were held
to the fire were not really known that

1554
00:42:50,300 --> 00:42:50,310
to the fire were not really known that
 

1555
00:42:50,310 --> 00:42:53,900
to the fire were not really known that
so these new course tell us that we have

1556
00:42:53,900 --> 00:42:53,910
so these new course tell us that we have
 

1557
00:42:53,910 --> 00:42:56,960
so these new course tell us that we have
a lot more work to do with the climate

1558
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:56,970
a lot more work to do with the climate
 

1559
00:42:56,970 --> 00:43:00,620
a lot more work to do with the climate
modelling finally during the last two

1560
00:43:00,620 --> 00:43:00,630
modelling finally during the last two
 

1561
00:43:00,630 --> 00:43:03,500
modelling finally during the last two
decades it's important to recognize that

1562
00:43:03,500 --> 00:43:03,510
decades it's important to recognize that
 

1563
00:43:03,510 --> 00:43:06,500
decades it's important to recognize that
ice caps and glaciers outside of the

1564
00:43:06,500 --> 00:43:06,510
ice caps and glaciers outside of the
 

1565
00:43:06,510 --> 00:43:09,290
ice caps and glaciers outside of the
polar region primarily have been

1566
00:43:09,290 --> 00:43:09,300
polar region primarily have been
 

1567
00:43:09,300 --> 00:43:11,420
polar region primarily have been
diminishing or disappearing at an

1568
00:43:11,420 --> 00:43:11,430
diminishing or disappearing at an
 

1569
00:43:11,430 --> 00:43:15,470
diminishing or disappearing at an
astonishing rate in the last few weeks

1570
00:43:15,470 --> 00:43:15,480
astonishing rate in the last few weeks
 

1571
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:16,880
astonishing rate in the last few weeks
if you've been listening watching

1572
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:16,890
if you've been listening watching
 

1573
00:43:16,890 --> 00:43:18,450
if you've been listening watching
watching on your inner

1574
00:43:18,450 --> 00:43:18,460
watching on your inner
 

1575
00:43:18,460 --> 00:43:20,849
watching on your inner
it you'll notice there has been there

1576
00:43:20,849 --> 00:43:20,859
it you'll notice there has been there
 

1577
00:43:20,859 --> 00:43:22,859
it you'll notice there has been there
been the reports of the increased

1578
00:43:22,859 --> 00:43:22,869
been the reports of the increased
 

1579
00:43:22,869 --> 00:43:27,210
been the reports of the increased
frequency of icebergs from the wadell

1580
00:43:27,210 --> 00:43:27,220
frequency of icebergs from the wadell
 

1581
00:43:27,220 --> 00:43:30,480
frequency of icebergs from the wadell
sea area but in reality there have been

1582
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:30,490
sea area but in reality there have been
 

1583
00:43:30,490 --> 00:43:32,910
sea area but in reality there have been
other observations such as the warty ice

1584
00:43:32,910 --> 00:43:32,920
other observations such as the warty ice
 

1585
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:37,440
other observations such as the warty ice
shelf which since about nineteen in the

1586
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:37,450
shelf which since about nineteen in the
 

1587
00:43:37,450 --> 00:43:40,380
shelf which since about nineteen in the
since the 1950s is now down to something

1588
00:43:40,380 --> 00:43:40,390
since the 1950s is now down to something
 

1589
00:43:40,390 --> 00:43:42,960
since the 1950s is now down to something
on the order of thirty to twenty five

1590
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:42,970
on the order of thirty to twenty five
 

1591
00:43:42,970 --> 00:43:45,900
on the order of thirty to twenty five
percent of its size just three decades

1592
00:43:45,900 --> 00:43:45,910
percent of its size just three decades
 

1593
00:43:45,910 --> 00:43:48,480
percent of its size just three decades
ago and for the first time in history

1594
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:48,490
ago and for the first time in history
 

1595
00:43:48,490 --> 00:43:51,390
ago and for the first time in history
this year ships could circumnavigate

1596
00:43:51,390 --> 00:43:51,400
this year ships could circumnavigate
 

1597
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,670
this year ships could circumnavigate
Ross Island because the land bridge

1598
00:43:53,670 --> 00:43:53,680
Ross Island because the land bridge
 

1599
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,160
Ross Island because the land bridge
connecting it to the mainland has

1600
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:56,170
connecting it to the mainland has
 

1601
00:43:56,170 --> 00:44:01,470
connecting it to the mainland has
disappeared the ice core record from the

1602
00:44:01,470 --> 00:44:01,480
disappeared the ice core record from the
 

1603
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,910
disappeared the ice core record from the
dire plateau shows us this is Delta o-18

1604
00:44:04,910 --> 00:44:04,920
dire plateau shows us this is Delta o-18
 

1605
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:08,010
dire plateau shows us this is Delta o-18
shows us essentially that since the 40s

1606
00:44:08,010 --> 00:44:08,020
shows us essentially that since the 40s
 

1607
00:44:08,020 --> 00:44:10,230
shows us essentially that since the 40s
there has been a marked warming in this

1608
00:44:10,230 --> 00:44:10,240
there has been a marked warming in this
 

1609
00:44:10,240 --> 00:44:13,200
there has been a marked warming in this
region if you might look back and say oh

1610
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:13,210
region if you might look back and say oh
 

1611
00:44:13,210 --> 00:44:15,270
region if you might look back and say oh
yeah but there was a warm time back then

1612
00:44:15,270 --> 00:44:15,280
yeah but there was a warm time back then
 

1613
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,030
yeah but there was a warm time back then
the difference is not the degree of the

1614
00:44:18,030 --> 00:44:18,040
the difference is not the degree of the
 

1615
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,300
the difference is not the degree of the
warmth the differences in is that warmth

1616
00:44:21,300 --> 00:44:21,310
warmth the differences in is that warmth
 

1617
00:44:21,310 --> 00:44:26,160
warmth the differences in is that warmth
sustained and this is a 50-year warming

1618
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:26,170
sustained and this is a 50-year warming
 

1619
00:44:26,170 --> 00:44:32,520
sustained and this is a 50-year warming
period returning for the last time to

1620
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:32,530
period returning for the last time to
 

1621
00:44:32,530 --> 00:44:35,520
period returning for the last time to
kill kya we've had the opportunity to

1622
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:35,530
kill kya we've had the opportunity to
 

1623
00:44:35,530 --> 00:44:38,310
kill kya we've had the opportunity to
observe in this area since nineteen

1624
00:44:38,310 --> 00:44:38,320
observe in this area since nineteen
 

1625
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,700
observe in this area since nineteen
seventy-four and I have to use what used

1626
00:44:41,700 --> 00:44:41,710
seventy-four and I have to use what used
 

1627
00:44:41,710 --> 00:44:43,859
seventy-four and I have to use what used
to be called the dirty word the M word

1628
00:44:43,859 --> 00:44:43,869
to be called the dirty word the M word
 

1629
00:44:43,869 --> 00:44:47,520
to be called the dirty word the M word
that's monitoring we were always told

1630
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:47,530
that's monitoring we were always told
 

1631
00:44:47,530 --> 00:44:50,880
that's monitoring we were always told
fuel in the I scoring business that we

1632
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:50,890
fuel in the I scoring business that we
 

1633
00:44:50,890 --> 00:44:52,740
fuel in the I scoring business that we
don't monitor we just go out and get

1634
00:44:52,740 --> 00:44:52,750
don't monitor we just go out and get
 

1635
00:44:52,750 --> 00:44:55,020
don't monitor we just go out and get
records what we have found is that

1636
00:44:55,020 --> 00:44:55,030
records what we have found is that
 

1637
00:44:55,030 --> 00:44:57,990
records what we have found is that
monitoring is critical just like the ice

1638
00:44:57,990 --> 00:44:58,000
monitoring is critical just like the ice
 

1639
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,089
monitoring is critical just like the ice
course that provide this long-term

1640
00:45:00,089 --> 00:45:00,099
course that provide this long-term
 

1641
00:45:00,099 --> 00:45:03,480
course that provide this long-term
history we need to be monitoring now we

1642
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:03,490
history we need to be monitoring now we
 

1643
00:45:03,490 --> 00:45:06,089
history we need to be monitoring now we
need to start these records whether

1644
00:45:06,089 --> 00:45:06,099
need to start these records whether
 

1645
00:45:06,099 --> 00:45:08,010
need to start these records whether
they're people will say yeah but if we

1646
00:45:08,010 --> 00:45:08,020
they're people will say yeah but if we
 

1647
00:45:08,020 --> 00:45:09,630
they're people will say yeah but if we
start a satellite record we're only

1648
00:45:09,630 --> 00:45:09,640
start a satellite record we're only
 

1649
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,670
start a satellite record we're only
going to have in 20 years we're just

1650
00:45:11,670 --> 00:45:11,680
going to have in 20 years we're just
 

1651
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,440
going to have in 20 years we're just
going to have 20 years but that's 20

1652
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:13,450
going to have 20 years but that's 20
 

1653
00:45:13,450 --> 00:45:15,359
going to have 20 years but that's 20
more years then you would have if you

1654
00:45:15,359 --> 00:45:15,369
more years then you would have if you
 

1655
00:45:15,369 --> 00:45:18,150
more years then you would have if you
don't start the program and I'll just

1656
00:45:18,150 --> 00:45:18,160
don't start the program and I'll just
 

1657
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,690
don't start the program and I'll just
show you the value of monitoring on kal

1658
00:45:21,690 --> 00:45:21,700
show you the value of monitoring on kal
 

1659
00:45:21,700 --> 00:45:26,400
show you the value of monitoring on kal
kya in 1976 we drilled the core here at

1660
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:26,410
kya in 1976 we drilled the core here at
 

1661
00:45:26,410 --> 00:45:28,380
kya in 1976 we drilled the core here at
the summit and you can see the beautiful

1662
00:45:28,380 --> 00:45:28,390
the summit and you can see the beautiful
 

1663
00:45:28,390 --> 00:45:32,479
the summit and you can see the beautiful
preservation of oxygen isotopic ratios

1664
00:45:32,479 --> 00:45:32,489
preservation of oxygen isotopic ratios
 

1665
00:45:32,489 --> 00:45:36,420
preservation of oxygen isotopic ratios
at the same site in 1991 we drilled a

1666
00:45:36,420 --> 00:45:36,430
at the same site in 1991 we drilled a
 

1667
00:45:36,430 --> 00:45:38,489
at the same site in 1991 we drilled a
core and you can see that record is

1668
00:45:38,489 --> 00:45:38,499
core and you can see that record is
 

1669
00:45:38,499 --> 00:45:40,680
core and you can see that record is
obliterated it's obliterated by the

1670
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:40,690
obliterated it's obliterated by the
 

1671
00:45:40,690 --> 00:45:43,289
obliterated it's obliterated by the
percolation of meltwater if we were

1672
00:45:43,289 --> 00:45:43,299
percolation of meltwater if we were
 

1673
00:45:43,299 --> 00:45:45,779
percolation of meltwater if we were
looking at the Cal kya ice cap today and

1674
00:45:45,779 --> 00:45:45,789
looking at the Cal kya ice cap today and
 

1675
00:45:45,789 --> 00:45:48,239
looking at the Cal kya ice cap today and
trying to determine whether it had the

1676
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:48,249
trying to determine whether it had the
 

1677
00:45:48,249 --> 00:45:51,329
trying to determine whether it had the
potential for a long-term climate record

1678
00:45:51,329 --> 00:45:51,339
potential for a long-term climate record
 

1679
00:45:51,339 --> 00:45:56,789
potential for a long-term climate record
we would pass it up this is the quarry

1680
00:45:56,789 --> 00:45:56,799
we would pass it up this is the quarry
 

1681
00:45:56,799 --> 00:45:59,279
we would pass it up this is the quarry
Kahless glacier it's the largest outlet

1682
00:45:59,279 --> 00:45:59,289
Kahless glacier it's the largest outlet
 

1683
00:45:59,289 --> 00:46:02,880
Kahless glacier it's the largest outlet
glacier on kal kya and we have been able

1684
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:02,890
glacier on kal kya and we have been able
 

1685
00:46:02,890 --> 00:46:05,430
glacier on kal kya and we have been able
to get terrestrial photography that

1686
00:46:05,430 --> 00:46:05,440
to get terrestrial photography that
 

1687
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:08,339
to get terrestrial photography that
shows the retreat of that outlet glacier

1688
00:46:08,339 --> 00:46:08,349
shows the retreat of that outlet glacier
 

1689
00:46:08,349 --> 00:46:15,809
shows the retreat of that outlet glacier
since 1963 6880 391 more importantly

1690
00:46:15,809 --> 00:46:15,819
since 1963 6880 391 more importantly
 

1691
00:46:15,819 --> 00:46:21,960
since 1963 6880 391 more importantly
this graph is the rate of retreat from

1692
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:21,970
this graph is the rate of retreat from
 

1693
00:46:21,970 --> 00:46:24,390
this graph is the rate of retreat from
nineteen sixty three to nineteen seventy

1694
00:46:24,390 --> 00:46:24,400
nineteen sixty three to nineteen seventy
 

1695
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,670
nineteen sixty three to nineteen seventy
eight it retreated at a rate of four

1696
00:46:26,670 --> 00:46:26,680
eight it retreated at a rate of four
 

1697
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,229
eight it retreated at a rate of four
meters a year then seven meters a year

1698
00:46:30,229 --> 00:46:30,239
meters a year then seven meters a year
 

1699
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:35,249
meters a year then seven meters a year
and since 1978 I'm sorry since 1983 it's

1700
00:46:35,249 --> 00:46:35,259
and since 1978 I'm sorry since 1983 it's
 

1701
00:46:35,259 --> 00:46:40,769
and since 1978 I'm sorry since 1983 it's
retreated 14 meters a year finally we

1702
00:46:40,769 --> 00:46:40,779
retreated 14 meters a year finally we
 

1703
00:46:40,779 --> 00:46:43,979
retreated 14 meters a year finally we
just have basic observations this

1704
00:46:43,979 --> 00:46:43,989
just have basic observations this
 

1705
00:46:43,989 --> 00:46:46,109
just have basic observations this
Boulder is about the size of this stage

1706
00:46:46,109 --> 00:46:46,119
Boulder is about the size of this stage
 

1707
00:46:46,119 --> 00:46:49,559
Boulder is about the size of this stage
and this ice cliff which is vertical

1708
00:46:49,559 --> 00:46:49,569
and this ice cliff which is vertical
 

1709
00:46:49,569 --> 00:46:51,749
and this ice cliff which is vertical
this is kal kya again I'm coming back

1710
00:46:51,749 --> 00:46:51,759
this is kal kya again I'm coming back
 

1711
00:46:51,759 --> 00:46:55,289
this is kal kya again I'm coming back
now to that vertical margin is about 20

1712
00:46:55,289 --> 00:46:55,299
now to that vertical margin is about 20
 

1713
00:46:55,299 --> 00:46:57,719
now to that vertical margin is about 20
meters high and this picture was taken

1714
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:57,729
meters high and this picture was taken
 

1715
00:46:57,729 --> 00:47:02,579
meters high and this picture was taken
in 1977 this is one year later in

1716
00:47:02,579 --> 00:47:02,589
in 1977 this is one year later in
 

1717
00:47:02,589 --> 00:47:08,719
in 1977 this is one year later in
nineteen seventy eight nineteen seventy

1718
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:08,729
nineteen seventy eight nineteen seventy
 

1719
00:47:08,729 --> 00:47:18,269
nineteen seventy eight nineteen seventy
1983 1989 this is the boulder now this

1720
00:47:18,269 --> 00:47:18,279
1983 1989 this is the boulder now this
 

1721
00:47:18,279 --> 00:47:23,130
1983 1989 this is the boulder now this
is the margin and in 1993 this is the

1722
00:47:23,130 --> 00:47:23,140
is the margin and in 1993 this is the
 

1723
00:47:23,140 --> 00:47:26,249
is the margin and in 1993 this is the
boulder this is the margin and it's 20

1724
00:47:26,249 --> 00:47:26,259
boulder this is the margin and it's 20
 

1725
00:47:26,259 --> 00:47:29,190
boulder this is the margin and it's 20
centimeters high this is happening

1726
00:47:29,190 --> 00:47:29,200
centimeters high this is happening
 

1727
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,709
centimeters high this is happening
around the world in the tropics and

1728
00:47:31,709 --> 00:47:31,719
around the world in the tropics and
 

1729
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,589
around the world in the tropics and
subtropics the Lewis glacier has lost

1730
00:47:34,589 --> 00:47:34,599
subtropics the Lewis glacier has lost
 

1731
00:47:34,599 --> 00:47:39,719
subtropics the Lewis glacier has lost
forty percent of its of its mass in the

1732
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:39,729
forty percent of its of its mass in the
 

1733
00:47:39,729 --> 00:47:44,849
forty percent of its of its mass in the
last 25 years in the ruined zorry the

1734
00:47:44,849 --> 00:47:44,859
last 25 years in the ruined zorry the
 

1735
00:47:44,859 --> 00:47:46,260
last 25 years in the ruined zorry the
speak glacier

1736
00:47:46,260 --> 00:47:46,270
speak glacier
 

1737
00:47:46,270 --> 00:47:49,680
speak glacier
they're all disappearing the sad part is

1738
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:49,690
they're all disappearing the sad part is
 

1739
00:47:49,690 --> 00:47:51,840
they're all disappearing the sad part is
not only is there an omen here that

1740
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:51,850
not only is there an omen here that
 

1741
00:47:51,850 --> 00:47:53,520
not only is there an omen here that
something is different that these ice

1742
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:53,530
something is different that these ice
 

1743
00:47:53,530 --> 00:47:55,500
something is different that these ice
masses that have lasted for centuries

1744
00:47:55,500 --> 00:47:55,510
masses that have lasted for centuries
 

1745
00:47:55,510 --> 00:47:58,620
masses that have lasted for centuries
are going away that should concern us

1746
00:47:58,620 --> 00:47:58,630
are going away that should concern us
 

1747
00:47:58,630 --> 00:48:01,230
are going away that should concern us
but with them they're taking these very

1748
00:48:01,230 --> 00:48:01,240
but with them they're taking these very
 

1749
00:48:01,240 --> 00:48:05,570
but with them they're taking these very
valuable archives so I hope that I have

1750
00:48:05,570 --> 00:48:05,580
valuable archives so I hope that I have
 

1751
00:48:05,580 --> 00:48:08,540
valuable archives so I hope that I have
convinced you that I scores offer a

1752
00:48:08,540 --> 00:48:08,550
convinced you that I scores offer a
 

1753
00:48:08,550 --> 00:48:11,550
convinced you that I scores offer a
multi-phase